Year in review Grade B, and the Buffett indicator

 Time for a year end wrap up. It was a bull year for sure, despite a little weakness here near the end.

Here are a few ETFs for 2024, not factoring in dividends:

26.7% GLD gold
24.8% QQQ Nasdaq 100

23.3% SPY S&P500
20.9% SLV silver

10.1% IWM Russell 2000
4.0% EEM emerging mkt

-11.7% TLT US20 yr

My trading account +25.2%. A solid B grade. I have significant positions in NVDA, BRK.B, AMZN, SPY and QQQ. A do have a few scattered shares in quite a few other stocks. Only losing ticker symbols for the year are TM Toyota, and TLT 20 year treasuries. Big winners in the stocks listed up front, NVDA, BRK.B, AMZN, SPY, QQQ.

I had a couple of big percentage winners on vertical call debit spreads on NVDA. Mostly, it was small potato, selling of puts and calls way out of the money. A couple of rallies were strong enough for me to roll the calls up and out.

Didn’t do anything brilliant. Last year I sold my few shares of PLTR Palintir, never bought back in. I sold my few shares in TSLA near the 52 week lows, but did buy back in.

Predictions are for entertainment, my prediction is +6% for SPY in 2025. There will be trading swings, but I don’t expect anything overly dramatic. If we get 10% off the highs, I will add longs, and add more if we touch -20% (which I don’t think we will see). On the up side, if we get to +20% for the year at any point, I may reduce positions and/or sell higher delta calls than I usually might.

Worth mentioning is the the US GDP vs total market cap indicator, sometimes called the Buffett indicator. What this doesn’t factor in, is how global many companies are now in terms of sales and profits. Anyway, the Buffett indicator is on a sell signal, with stock market valuations way out pacing GDP growth.

It’s been a good year for bulls. I hope it’s been good for you. If not, like the NY Mets baseball team, wait until next year. Cheers.

Election party, then hangover, grade B-

Stocks boom higher on election news, then give half of that back during the next week. I haven’t been doing much trading.

Here are some ETFs year-to date:

SLV silver 40.7%
GLD gold 23.8%

SPY SP500 23.2%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 21.3%
IWM Russell 2000 13.8%

EEM emerging mkt 6.8%
TLT US20 yr -8.9%

My trading account up around 25% for calendar 2024. I’ll take it. I am busier until Christmas, so will have less time for trading. Overall plan remains, add to longs on significant dips, keep a healthy cash reserve.

This is the month of Thanksgiving. I am grateful for all my blessings, especially my friends and family, and our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.

Off topic: One new thing for me is learning guitar, I’ll post my first Christian song on YouTube. Link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJZ29LAC1ms

Bulling ahead, Grade B-

The bull continues to plow ahead. I only make minor moves, and give myself a B- grade for the trading month. Sometimes doing nothing or very little is a productive way to proceed. I continue to be overweight large cap tech, along with a large cash reserve.

Here are some ETFs year-to-date:

SLV silver 40.7%
GLD gold 31.4%

SPY SP500         23.0%
QQQ Nasdaq 100         20.7%
EEM emerging mkt 14.2%
IWM Russell 2000 12.4%

TLT US20 yr -5.1%

My trading account +23.8%, so about even with SPY. I see this is a good result because I keep a large cash reserve.

Without too much fanfare, Silver is now leading the way in calendar 2024. Back in day, I established a modest emergency reserve in precious metals. Even the not so smart purchases at prior highs of around $35 an ounce are now profitable. Captain Obvious will tell the metals people that SPY and QQQ have done much better over the last 10 years.

For people with significant wealth a modest position in physical gold and silver is a prudent move. Even 2% can provide a significant buffer against some unthinkable scenarios. A week’s worth or water, food, meds is another common sense precaution that costs near nothing. With widespread flooding from recent storms, it is hard to evacuate with much more than that.

I will have less time for trading between now and Christmas. I like to have a month of almost no activity, so I can come back to the market with fresh eyes. I keep my core stocks and etfs. Overall strategy remains the same, overweight big cap tech, add on signficant dips.

The Impossible Dream. grade B-

Back in the day, the song Impossible Dream from Man of LaMancha, was popular. This comes to mind with the gyrations of the market. Some imagine how much money they could make if they could time, those highs and lows, even in one stock, much less the market. For almost all of us, this is an impossible dream. Any way to phrase it:

Perfection is a hope a dream, an illusion.

Those that buy lows tend not to be those that sell highs. Investing legend Warren Buffett, says he never met a successful long term market timer. Of course some make great short term calls, and may get it right over a short time period. Over the long term, the market is always evolving. Indicators that work during one period, may fail spectacularly as the market shifts. 

Those with big money that try to time the stock market tend to also trade bonds, currencies, commodities and make the bulk of their money outside of the stock market. 

Here are some ETFs year-to-date:

SLV silver 30.4%
GLD gold 26.7

QQQ Nasdaq 100 17.8%
SPY SP500 16.6%

IWM Russell 2000 10.5%
EEM emerging mkt 8.7%
TLT US20 yr 0.0%

My trading account +19.4, so ahead of SPY. Grade for the month is B-. I remain over weight big cap tech with medium sized positions in AMZN and NVDA. Another significant holding is shares of BRKB.

The NFL football season has started. Over reaction to one good or bad game is common, early in the season. Hard to discern whether some teams have real strengths or weaknesses, that become apparent over the course of the year. The analogy to the stock market is the desire to over react to one news event, or one bad day or week.

The pipe dream of being able to time highs and lows doesn’t go away. However, realism from so many years of trading sets in. I am who I am. Just getting there for me, was a long journey, because the psychology of trading was a big topic for me. Almost everyone has some emotional attachment to money. May five percent can be near emotionless from the start. For maybe 10 percent, the emotional issues are front and center.

The big picture plan remains in place. Buy signficant dips, over weight big cap tech. Some trimming along the edges might be done. Good luck to all. 

Weathering the storm, C+

The stock market has a V-shaped correction and recovery. I weather the storm, not doing much, escaping without major damage. During the lows, the subject line might have been: Timber! Or Look Out Below.

Here are some ETFs year to date:

SLV silver 21.3%
GLD gold 16.7%

SPY SP500 16.6%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 16.0%

EEM emerging mkt  8.0%
IWM Russell 2000  5.9%
TLT US20 yr -1.5%

My trading account +18.3%, grade is C+. The glass half empty person might see the missed opportunities. Nimble traders that rode the roller coaster down then up, made good money. The glass half full person sees the potential for getting in wrong on both moves. I have never been great at timing short term market moves. 

My tendency is to balance back towards a neutral stance. My instincts tend to be terrible. I have to fight the emotional responses, and tell myself what is likely to happen. Rule number one remains, Live to Trade another day. Those with substantial accounts (more than 10x annual wages) can not afford to have huge drawdowns.

The rally seems suspect. Nvidia earnings may be a market mover. However, so many are taking positions, expecting a big move, that it may be near non-event. That’s what I am leaning towards, a slightly bullish stance, selling premium. For the market, same, leaning bullish, but not aggressively so.

Bulls keep running (early report), grade B-

Bulls keep running. Markets feels stronger than the month indicates, but 2% up in less than a month is strong.

Here are some etfs year-to-date:

SLV silver 23.9%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 20.8%
SPY SP500 17.8%

GLD gold 16.7%
EEM emerging mkt 10.7%

IWM Russell 2000 6.2%
TLT US20 yr -5.0%

My trading account +19% or so. I stay slightly ahead of SPY. Doing so with large cash reserves, is a good result. My buy and hold account is up in the 9% range for the year, because it has more fixed income. TLT, 20 year treasury ETF continues to lag. A pause to refresh would be a good thing and give the bulls more staying power.

Precious metals doing well this year. IWM has a few strong days after a year of under performance.

With more travel on my schedule, not sure how much trading I will do. Right now, I have other priorities. Thank you for reading, enjoy the rest of the summer.

Riding the NVDA rocket B-

QQQ and SPY bound ahead, mostly on the strength in NVDA and other AI related stocks. NVDA moved sharply higher after a 10 for 1 stock split. A lots of folks are on board, so a pause is my most likely scenario.

Here are some ETFs year to date:

SLV silver 23.9%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 17.3%
SPY SP500 14.6%

GLD gold 12.4%
EEM emerging mkt 4.6%

TLT US20 yr -5.0%
IWM Russell 2000 -0.2%

My trading account +16.8%. I’ll take that. Slightly ahead of SPY, hopefully with less risk. Almost half my gains are from NVDA, even though I have a modest position.

Off topic, I tell traders to stay humble and keep on learning. I recently bought a guitar and am learning a new instrument at a not so young age. I am self taught on piano and penny whistle so understand the nature of the long journey. My attitude is do a little bit every day and in six months to a year, see how far I’ve traveled. If it isn’t very far, maybe sell the guitar. So far I am enjoying it, but am very early in the journey.

It would be nice if trading results came from consistent modest effort. I tend not to believe that. Some people have a talent, or luck. A few are self-destructive and will find a way to lose no matter the market conditions. The average person takes 1000 hours to reach apprentice level at any complex task. I’d guess 90 percent of novices blow up their options account before they know what they are doing.

As for my year, Toyota TM, TLT 20 year treasury ETF, Tesla TSLA are among the very few losers. Leading my ytd winners are NVDA, BRKB, AMZN and the big index etfs. At this point, it likely gets harder to predict the winners in the AI revolution. In hindsight, all will be revealed. My thinking is SPY and QQQ are the best ways to play it, because some big winners will surprise everyone.