The Impossible Dream. grade B-

Back in the day, the song Impossible Dream from Man of LaMancha, was popular. This comes to mind with the gyrations of the market. Some imagine how much money they could make if they could time, those highs and lows, even in one stock, much less the market. For almost all of us, this is an impossible dream. Any way to phrase it:

Perfection is a hope a dream, an illusion.

Those that buy lows tend not to be those that sell highs. Investing legend Warren Buffett, says he never met a successful long term market timer. Of course some make great short term calls, and may get it right over a short time period. Over the long term, the market is always evolving. Indicators that work during one period, may fail spectacularly as the market shifts. 

Those with big money that try to time the stock market tend to also trade bonds, currencies, commodities and make the bulk of their money outside of the stock market. 

Here are some ETFs year-to-date:

SLV silver 30.4%
GLD gold 26.7

QQQ Nasdaq 100 17.8%
SPY SP500 16.6%

IWM Russell 2000 10.5%
EEM emerging mkt 8.7%
TLT US20 yr 0.0%

My trading account +19.4, so ahead of SPY. Grade for the month is B-. I remain over weight big cap tech with medium sized positions in AMZN and NVDA. Another significant holding is shares of BRKB.

The NFL football season has started. Over reaction to one good or bad game is common, early in the season. Hard to discern whether some teams have real strengths or weaknesses, that become apparent over the course of the year. The analogy to the stock market is the desire to over react to one news event, or one bad day or week.

The pipe dream of being able to time highs and lows doesn’t go away. However, realism from so many years of trading sets in. I am who I am. Just getting there for me, was a long journey, because the psychology of trading was a big topic for me. Almost everyone has some emotional attachment to money. May five percent can be near emotionless from the start. For maybe 10 percent, the emotional issues are front and center.

The big picture plan remains in place. Buy signficant dips, over weight big cap tech. Some trimming along the edges might be done. Good luck to all. 

Weathering the storm, C+

The stock market has a V-shaped correction and recovery. I weather the storm, not doing much, escaping without major damage. During the lows, the subject line might have been: Timber! Or Look Out Below.

Here are some ETFs year to date:

SLV silver 21.3%
GLD gold 16.7%

SPY SP500 16.6%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 16.0%

EEM emerging mkt  8.0%
IWM Russell 2000  5.9%
TLT US20 yr -1.5%

My trading account +18.3%, grade is C+. The glass half empty person might see the missed opportunities. Nimble traders that rode the roller coaster down then up, made good money. The glass half full person sees the potential for getting in wrong on both moves. I have never been great at timing short term market moves. 

My tendency is to balance back towards a neutral stance. My instincts tend to be terrible. I have to fight the emotional responses, and tell myself what is likely to happen. Rule number one remains, Live to Trade another day. Those with substantial accounts (more than 10x annual wages) can not afford to have huge drawdowns.

The rally seems suspect. Nvidia earnings may be a market mover. However, so many are taking positions, expecting a big move, that it may be near non-event. That’s what I am leaning towards, a slightly bullish stance, selling premium. For the market, same, leaning bullish, but not aggressively so.

Bulls keep running (early report), grade B-

Bulls keep running. Markets feels stronger than the month indicates, but 2% up in less than a month is strong.

Here are some etfs year-to-date:

SLV silver 23.9%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 20.8%
SPY SP500 17.8%

GLD gold 16.7%
EEM emerging mkt 10.7%

IWM Russell 2000 6.2%
TLT US20 yr -5.0%

My trading account +19% or so. I stay slightly ahead of SPY. Doing so with large cash reserves, is a good result. My buy and hold account is up in the 9% range for the year, because it has more fixed income. TLT, 20 year treasury ETF continues to lag. A pause to refresh would be a good thing and give the bulls more staying power.

Precious metals doing well this year. IWM has a few strong days after a year of under performance.

With more travel on my schedule, not sure how much trading I will do. Right now, I have other priorities. Thank you for reading, enjoy the rest of the summer.

Riding the NVDA rocket B-

QQQ and SPY bound ahead, mostly on the strength in NVDA and other AI related stocks. NVDA moved sharply higher after a 10 for 1 stock split. A lots of folks are on board, so a pause is my most likely scenario.

Here are some ETFs year to date:

SLV silver 23.9%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 17.3%
SPY SP500 14.6%

GLD gold 12.4%
EEM emerging mkt 4.6%

TLT US20 yr -5.0%
IWM Russell 2000 -0.2%

My trading account +16.8%. I’ll take that. Slightly ahead of SPY, hopefully with less risk. Almost half my gains are from NVDA, even though I have a modest position.

Off topic, I tell traders to stay humble and keep on learning. I recently bought a guitar and am learning a new instrument at a not so young age. I am self taught on piano and penny whistle so understand the nature of the long journey. My attitude is do a little bit every day and in six months to a year, see how far I’ve traveled. If it isn’t very far, maybe sell the guitar. So far I am enjoying it, but am very early in the journey.

It would be nice if trading results came from consistent modest effort. I tend not to believe that. Some people have a talent, or luck. A few are self-destructive and will find a way to lose no matter the market conditions. The average person takes 1000 hours to reach apprentice level at any complex task. I’d guess 90 percent of novices blow up their options account before they know what they are doing.

As for my year, Toyota TM, TLT 20 year treasury ETF, Tesla TSLA are among the very few losers. Leading my ytd winners are NVDA, BRKB, AMZN and the big index etfs. At this point, it likely gets harder to predict the winners in the AI revolution. In hindsight, all will be revealed. My thinking is SPY and QQQ are the best ways to play it, because some big winners will surprise everyone.

Early report, back to highs, grade C

Market bulls see a rebound off recent lows. I participate, grade C. I am going on vacation so wanted to post a week early.

Here are some ETFs year to date:

SLV silver 18.3%
GLD gold 14.4%

SPY SP500 9.6%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 7.9%
EEM emerging mkt 5.7%

IWM Russell 2000 1.8%
TLT US20 yr -8.9%

My trading account up 9.7%. I close out some small positions, including dumping the last of my TSLA shares near the lows. I may buy back 1 or 2 shares after Elon Musk proved he can still move the stock with minor actions. I also dumped AMD, CRM, SBUX. Moved some of the proceeds into BIL (Treasury bill ETF), and SPY. 

I retain a large cash reserve along with an overweight position in NVDA. NVDA reports later this month. We will see if they can continue their streak of leaping higher after earnings. As a stock gets to mega cap status it gets harder and harder to move the needle. When a company gets big, enemies, regulators, haters, see it as a threat.

So I will enjoy my time off, with minimal trading. The market will be there when I get back. There are always new opportunities.

Slip sliding away, Grade C

A hard down week in US equities close this option cycle. Other subject lines to describe the action include, Tech Wreck, I’m Melting (Wizard of Oz), as QQQ gives up most of its 2024 gains. Tesla, Apple are among the losers. I lose about 2% in my trading account, which sounds bad, but SPY, QQQ did worse.

Here are some ETFs 2024 calendar stats:

SLV silver 20.3%
GLD gold 15.6%

SPY SP500 4.2%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 1.3%

EEM emerging mkt -1.2%
IWM Russell 2000 -3.8%
TLT US20 yr -9.8%

My trading account +5.4 for 2024, so I am holding my own. The correction feels worse than that because there were higher highs. In fantasy land, I buy the low, and sell the high. Real life trading tends to be a lot harder for most of us. Precious metals had a good month, and now lead the pack, after years of underperformance. 

Bonds continue to lead lower. If yields go up over 5 percent, they start to be a significant headwind for equities. My big picture plan has been and continues to be to add to SPY and QQQ longs on significant dips. We are at 5% from the highs, and I added a smidge. At 10% off the highs and maybe 20 percent off the highs, opportunities look better. No one knows when the short term bottom is, and how big a bounce we might get from there.

I close positions in CRM, NFLX, reduced longs in AMD. I also went net short for a brief while on TSLA. The TSLA play was debit put spreads, which I closed at 30% profit on the tiny position. After several down days and earnings next week. I decided to book one of the few winners. NVDA saw a vicious correction. I remain overweight long NVDA. It is difficult to stomach the 20% decline off the 964 highs. I delta hedge shares by selling way out of the money calls, but am still overweight long.

Tough week for bulls. Good luck to all. Several big tech names report earnings next week. I have small long positions in META MSFT and other big cap techs, along with QQQ.

Live by the Sword, Grade C+

The cliché is Live by the Sword, Die by the Sword. Being overweight tech is great on the way up, turbulent on the way down. Grade C+. I did okay, but feel like I mis-managed my NVDA position. One lucky thing I did was close longs in Adobe before it fell on earnings.

Here are some ETFs, 2024 calendar performance:

SPY SP500 7.3%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 6.0%

SLV silver 5.7%
GLD gold 4.5%

EEM emerging mkt 1.4%
IWM Russell 2000 0.8%

TLT US20 yr -6.0%

My trading account +7.7, so I am staying ahead. Still doesn’t feel good during those down days towards the end of the option cycle. The most likely scenario for QQQ and some other leading stocks is choppy horizontal trade. I reduced long positions in AAPL and TSLA, got out of ADBE entirely because they are two of my worst holdings for 2024. I initiated tiny long positions in Ferrari RACE, and Toyota TM. These two auto stocks are doing well, while EV oriented auto stocks have been falling.

I remain overall bullish, overall tech heavy, lots of cash in reserve, looking to add longs on signficant dips.