Saturday, June 16, 2018

Monthly 84-6, Grade B

Another positive month for me, as the market rallies. I count 84 winners, 6 losers for this monthly option cycle. Market ran a bit too hot for me. I took some big losses on sold calls. Stupid loss on one Tesla leg, cost me big time. I sold a cheap option with high risk and suffered one of the biggest percentage losses ever, about 5500%. So the call buyer made about 55x their money. Most galling was that had I held until expiration, the option expired worthless.

The lesson isn’t to let it ride, because some other sold calls on NFLX and TSLA would have become even bigger losers had I not honored the mental stop loss levels and taken the hits.

Here are a few etfs that I track and their year-to-date performance:

IWM +10.1% Russell 2000 US small cap
SPY +4.2% S&P 500 US large cap

GLD -1.9% gold
SLV -2.4% silver

EEM -4.0% emerging markets equity
TLT -5.1% US 20-year treasuries

My trading account up 9.2%, which is good, not great. There is room for improvement. Last year’s big winner EEM is lagging this year. Gold and silver have been dead money for a while now. Bonds have trended lower. The cliché Sell in May hasn’t been working. I did lighten up a bit early in May. The strong rally had me rebalancing, and taking losses on some sold calls. Despite being wrong on the general market direction, I made close to 3% for the month. I’ll take that.

Going forward, the bull market is still intact. Far too many folks on Reddit, are far too cautious. Many in the fearful camp are relatively inexperienced folks being scared by click-bait type of articles, or focusing on one or two indicators. It isn’t all puppies and rainbows, but the preponderance of evidence favors a continued bull market.

I keep watching the yield curve. If all goes on schedule, the dreaded inverted yield curve will come into effect by late this year. This is a mild bear market indicator, so it doesn’t mean head for the hills. It may mean to lighten up and shift to a slightly bearish bias, from my slightly bullish bias.

Friday, June 15, 2018

Weekly: Netflix leads rally

Netflix is now worth more than Disney. I take a loss on some sold NFLX calls. Market dips on Friday, after more up days.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Rally rolls on. I take a loss on some sold SPY calls.
Cover SPY Jun22 279 c 147 for 600% loss

Sell BA Aug 320 p 268
Sell NFLX Jul 315 p 258

Sell SPY Jul 265 p 105
Sell SPY Aug 261 p 151

Sell QQQ Aug 158 p 107

Tue Sell SPY Jul6 266 p 53
Sell TSLA Jun29 300 p 199

Wed Netflix rallies on news. Market fades late after Fed hike and news.
Cover NFLX Jun 370 c 470 for 500% loss

Sell TLSA Jun22 300 p 101
Sell QQQ Jun29 167 p 34

Sell SPY Jun29 270 p 55
Sell NFLX Jul 500 c 52

Thu Sell IWM Aug 152 p 65
Sell RH Jul 125 p 95 new long

Sell QQQ Jul 164 p 57
Sell TSLA Jul 300 p 385

Sell TSLA Jul6 300 p 234

Fri Sell BA Jul 400 c 62
Sell BA Aug 430 c 57

Sell SPY Aug 290 c 51

Saturday, June 09, 2018

Weekly: Nightmare on Tesla street

DIA has its best week of the year, up 2.8%, other averages up big too. TSLA has a huge rally after its shareholder meeting. I get burned badly, closing some sold calls near the top of the move. Thankfully the positions are small. The pain is real, especially with a reversal after I cover. Despite the TSLA crap storm and a 5500% loss on one leg, I eek out a tiny gain for the week.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Rally rolls on. Nasdaq at a new high.
Cover QQQ Jun 173 c 205 for big loss
Sell SPY Jun22 261 p 44

Sell SPY Jul 257 p 100
Sell AAPL Jul 175 p 60

Sell IWM Jul6 152.5 p 38
Sell QQQ Jul6 161 p 47

Sell NFLX Jun29 325 p 136
Sell WYNN Jul 210 c 75

Sell NVDA strangle 201: Sell NVDA Jul 235 p
Sell NVDA 315 c

Sell TSLA Jun 260 p 65
Sell SPY Jun 265 p 37

Roll AMZN for 529 credit: Cover AMZN Jul 1350 p 170
Sell AMZN Aug 1350 p 699

Tue Sell FB Jul6 177.5 p 54
Sell GRUB Jul 90 p 47

Sell SPY Jul6 260 p 68
Sell TSLA Jun8 322.5 c 15

Sell QQQ Aug 150 p 59
Sell WYNN Jun 190 c 42

Wed Tesla up after shareholders meeting.
Sell TSLA Jun22 275 p 197

Sell TLSA Jun 280 p 100
Sell BA Jul 325 p 160

Sell SPY Jul13 260 p 71
Sell SPY Aug 254 p 130

Roll BABA for 73 credit: Cover BABA Jul 165 p 19 for profit
Sell BABA Jul 185 p 92

Rally picks up speed, I scramble to add more long delta.

Sell TSLA Jun 290 p 122
Sell BA Jun29 340 p 96

Sell SPY Jun22 266 p 42
Sell SPY Jul 260 p 87

Sell QQQ Jul 161 p 61
Sell TSLA Jun29 280 p 227

Thu Tesla rallies again. It becomes a nightmare day for me, as I cover sold calls for huge losses near the top, then TSLA reverses. Yikes. Thank goodness for small position sizing.

Cover TSLA Jun8 322.5 c 845 might be biggest percentage loss ever 5500% range. Call buyers could have made 55x their money, trading opposite me. By the end of the day, TSLA lower.

Cover TSLA Jun 330 c 935 near the exact top about a 2000% loss. Ouch. Double ouch that it was the top of the day so far.
Sell TSLA Jun 295 p 112

Sell TSLA Jun 390 c 34
Sell TSLA Jun22 375 c 84

Sell TSLA Jun29 395 c 52
Sell BABA Jul 240 c 36

Sell FB Jul 215 c 31
Sell SPY Jul 265 p 110

Fri Sell SPY Jul 262 p 92
Sell COST Jul 185 p 41

Friday, June 01, 2018

Weekly: Yo-Yo market

Market drops, then recovers, drops then recovers in yo-yo action. Overall, the market and my account are up for the week.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Tue News from Italy is the catalyst for a market drop.
Sell SPY Jun22 279 c 21
Sell NVDA Jun29 210 p 51

Sell SHAK Jul 47.5 p 25
Sell CMG Jun 395 p 90

Sell CMG Jun 500 c 20
Sell MSFT Jun 92 p 20

Sell QQQ Jun29 c 15
Sell SPY Jul 281 c 40

Sell BRKB Jul 210 c 47
Sell JPM Jun 115 c 12

Wed Markets rebound, then gain strength. I add long delta through out the day.
Sell DVN Jul 35 p 27

Sell FB Jun29 167.5 p 41
Sell HES Jul 50 p 31 31

Sell MA Jul 170 p 79
Sell NFLX Jun29 300 p 86

Sell QQQ Jul6 155 p 53
Sell SPY Jun29 255 p 75

Sell JPM Jul 95 p 41
Sell TSLA Jun 245 p 70

Sell BRKB Jul 175 p 56
Sell TIF Jul 110 p 29

Sell MU Jul 45 p 17
Sell IWM Jun 153 p 18

Sell SPG Jul 145 p 46
Sell QQQ Jul 153 p 72

Sell SPY Jul 251 p 109
Sell IWM Jun29 153 p

Thu Yo-yo market goes back down.
Sell GRUB Jun 92.5 p 20
Sell TSLA Jun 330 c 41

Sell BA Jun 380 c 28
Sell FB Jun29 212.5 c 23
Sell AAPL Jul 210 c 20

Fri Week ends on a positive note. Costco and Ulta Beauty modestly lower on earnings.
Sell QQQ Jul13 155 p 51
Sell SPY Jul13 254 p 84

Sell COST Jun 210 c 10
Sell MU Jul 90 c 11

Sell QQQ Jul 157 p 65
Sell FB Jul 175 p 88

Sell SPY Jul 254 p 102
Sell NFLX Jul 300 p 251
Sell BA Aug 295 p 196

Friday, May 25, 2018

Weekly: Profits at Tiffany’s

Another positive week for me. TIF gaps higher on earnings. I sell puts. I added longs in oil producers, only to see oil tumble on Friday.
Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Rally day on easing trade tensions. Markets up but off their highs.
Sell AMZN Jul 1350 p 600

Sell SPY Jun29 255 p 74
Sell BA Jun 325 p 104

Sell SHAK 52.5 p 26 new long
Sell IWM Jul 148 p 64

Sell TSLA Jun1 250 p 88
Sell BA Jul 310 p 161

Tue Sell BA Jul 415 c 78
Sell TSLA Jun1 315 c 35

Wed Tiffany’s and Lowes up on earnings.
Sell TIF Jul 105 p 56
Sell LOW Jun 85 p 20

Sell SPY Jun22 282 c 19
Sell WYNN Jul 165 p 96

Sell JPM Jun 100 p 16
Sell BRKB Jul 170 p 43

Sell NFLX Jun 305 p 114
Sell NVDA Jun 205 p 29

Sell BABA Jul 165 p 61
Sell TIF Jun 115 p 65 add

Thu North Korea peace talks on hold. Market falls then rallies off the lows.
Sell WFC Jul 47.5 p 19
Sell ULTA Jun 200 p 55

Sell CAT Jul 135 p 78
Sell SPY Jun29 282 c 20

Sell TSLA Jun8 230 p 84
Sell CMG Jun 395 p 90

Sell TGT Jul 60 p 21
Sell NFLX Jun22 315 p 172

Sell INTC Jun 50 p 14
Sell VLO Jul 100 p 29

Sell HFC Jul 60 p 30
Sell XOP Jul 35 p 18

Fri Sell QQQ Jun29 157 p 55
Sell SPY Jul 286 c 18

Sell SPY Jun 280 c 14
Sell SPY Jul6 254 p 78

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Monthly: best so far 104-7, Grade A-

This is my best month of the year so far. Up about 3.4% for the month. I count 104 winners 7 losers, self grade A-. The losers include some whipsaw action in AAPL and BA.

Here are some etfs that I track:
IWM +6.2% Russell 2000 U.S. small cap
SPY +2.0% S&P 500 U.S. large cap

GLD -1.0% gold
EEM -2.2% emerging markets equity

SLV -3.2% silver
TLT -7.6% U.S. 20 year treasuries

My portfolio +6.2% year to date, so quite respectable. It is interesting that the two U.S. stock etfs are up for the year, the other four are now down.

I took on more risk in April and May and it paid off. In particular I sold strangles on AMZN. The high dollar value, translates into tail risk, on a market shaking move.

My directional trades haven’t been very good. The minor adjustment to rebalance with layers further out in time seems to be working. Before I was selling short term premium and sometimes getting whipsawed.

For now it is still a bull market. However, one troubling shift in sentiment on Reddit, is more posts about trading for a living, and novices encouraging other novices to jump in with limited capital. This is the kind of sentiment shift that occurs at market tops. I’m not predicting, but between that and some recent Etrade commercials about yachts and a wealthy lifestyle, are what we see at tops. There remains healthy skepticism, so it is isn’t all red lights. The recent eight straight up days, shows there is still money to come in.

Weekly: Flat is good

A flat week is good news for me. After last week’s scalding hot rally market, the eighth rally day comes on Monday, but then the market sputters. I add more oil producer longs, but still a small position. Many of my AMZN positions expire for 100% gains. I still have the first position, a Jun 1350/1400/1450 put butterfly. That original trade is down a bit, is near delta neutral, defined risk.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Eight rally days in a row. I close out another leg for a big loss.
Cover QQQ May 170 c 128 for big loss

Sell WYNN Jun 170 p 70
Sell SPY Jun 258 p 68

Sell CAT Jun 135 p 40
Sell HFC Jun 60 p 30 new long in Holly Frontier Corp

Sell VLO Jun 105 p 56
Sell UNH Jun 210 p 32

Sell NVDA May25 235 p 54
Sell NFLX Jun 280 p 83

Sell SPY May 267 p 18
Sell TGT Jun 62.5 p 31

Tue First down day in a while.
Sell NVDA May25 277.5 c 17
Sell QQQ Jul 182 c 26

Sell SPY Jul 290 c 24
Sell SPY Jun1 280 c 17

Sell TSLA May25 327.5 c 34
Sell WYNN Jun 220 c 26

Wed Sell MU Jun 45 p 23
Sell SPG Jul 135 p 61

Sell SPY Jun8 259 p 48
Sell QQQ Jun22 155 p 58

Fri Sell BA Jul 290 p 108

Friday, May 11, 2018

Weekly: 7 up days in a row

Seven up days in the row are a bit too much heat. SPY up about 2% for the week. My account up about half that. I close out several sold calls for big losses. For this Goldilocks, the soup is a bit too hot. Profit is a profit, but more profit tends to be more better.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Market opens higher, then gives up most of the gains. I take a loss on some sold AAPL calls.

Cover AAPL May 185 c 361 for big loss
Cover BA May 360 c for profit

Sell QQQ Jun8 153 p 61
Sell SPY Jun8 250 p 70

Sell FB May 167.5 p 40
Sell QQQ May 158 p 30

Sell AAPL Jul 165 p 100
Sell SPY Jun29 243 p 103

Sell BA May 320 p 140
Sell HES 52.5 p 37 new long

Sell IWM Jun 145 p 47

Tue Cover BA May 355 c 82 for break even profit
Sell TSLA MayW4 245 p 88

Wed Stock market rallies runs too hot. I take a loss on one leg of sold Boeing calls, and take profits on some sold QQQ calls.

Sell AAPL Jun 170 p 63
Sell FB Jun 165 p 73
Sell FB May 172.5 p 32

Sell LMT Jun 290 p 110
Sell QQQ Jun8 156 p 52

Sell SPY Jun8 255 p 64
Sell to close SPY Jun 250 p 68 for big loss

Cover BA May 345 c 505 for big loss
Cover QQQ May 172 c 26 for profit

Thu Market rally rolls on for sixth day in a row. The temperature continues to be too hot for me. I take big losses on sold calls on AAPL, FB, SPY. Three legs closed for huge losses. The bright side is that I eek out a gain for the day, despite being burned by the too hot market.

Sell SPY Jun1 259 p 51
Sell NFLX Jun1 297.5 155

Sell BABA Jun 170 p 44 new long
Sell SPY May25 262 p 39

Sell QQQ Jun 157 p 63
Sell AAPL Jun 175 p 93

Sell COST Jun 170 p 42 new long
Sell IWM JunW1 152.5 p 30

Sell SPY Jul 248 p 119
Sell QQQ Jul 150 p 86

Roll AAPL for huge debit: Cover AAPL Jun 190 c for big loss
Sell AAPL Jun 205 c 63

Cover FB May 185 c 237 for big loss
Cover SPY May 272 c 190 for big loss

Fri Sell NVDA May 230 p 23 earnings
Sell SPY Jun22 254 p 81