I've been away. I did one small trade, selling BRKB puts.
There is a recent post on the Boglehead (Vanguard) forum about missing out on the bull move (link). >> I did not participate in the market rally of the past 4 years due to fear... >> Like I sometimes write, on the Internet almost everyone that reports is a winner. The losers tend to slink away in silence. For the most part, market timing is a losing game. Most individual investors do poorly. The post linked is not a good sign for the stock market bulls, but by itself doesn't mean much.
Still, I have found that anecdotes are useful. When silver was topping, there were many posts from novices thinking it was a sure thing, a sure win, when silver is among the most volatile of vehicles.
There was an appearance at a stock market group of a recent finance degree graduate who wanted to tell all of the market veterans there that gold was the only sound investment. That hyperinflation was the only possible outcome. When novices and rookies some how have that in their heads, the odds of that happening are near zero. Yes, there may be a rookie out there that lucks into a correct call. Some even have a string of correct calls and make decent money trading.
Readers know that I like to have the odds in my favor, so the 1-in-1000 chance that a rookie or novice gets it right is not my kind of play. Better to take the 99.9% odds.
I came into this year (calendar 2013) with a bearish outlook. One thing that turned me around was anecdotes from several people that were extremely afraid of the stock market.
Updates may or may not be forthcoming. By January 2014, I should be back to a more regular schedule. In the interim, I can not say.
Thank you to all the readers, especially the few that may have been with me for the years I have been blogging.
winners, one loser for the November cycle. Again, before new readers
get too excited, almost all of these were high probability, low
reward trades. The trader taking the other side was hoping for a
10-to-1 payoff for buying such risky options.
I have another
positive month. It may seem like child's play to trade a
mostly up market. However it is tempting to out think the room and try to
be the hero and call the top.
I also sell puts on XOP XRT.
XOP Dec 60 puts
XRT Dec 81 puts
This is the Oil Exploration ETF (XOP) and the Retail ETF (XRT).
Both trades are way out of the money, very low reward, high
probability of success (aka as worm trades).
the stock market moves lower, the short strangles take on more delta
and lose money. I rebalance closer to neutral, though am still net
long both Anardarko and LionsGate. Overall, lots of red minus signs
for my trading account.