Saturday, June 19, 2021

Dip at the End, Grade B-

Markets drift up and down, with a hard down day on expiration Friday. Self-grade is B-. I eek out a small gain, as SPY is flat for the trading month. The minor surprises are strength in bonds, weakness in precious metals. With all the inflation talk in the air, the opposite might be expected.

Here are a few etfs, year-to-date, no dividends

IWM Russell 2000 13.3%
SPY SP500 11.0%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 9.2%

EEM emerging market 5.0%
SLV silver -2.8%

TLT US20 yr treasury -7.6%
GLD gold -7.5%

My account +7.1% for calendar 2021, which lags all major US stock indexes, but is still a decent number for half a year. I make minor forays into CAKE and TXRH, which so far are both losers. I sold my tiny position in ASAN, just before it popped.

Which way from here? I see way too much chatter online about an impending crash to believe that this downturn has much steam. The mantra that has worked for 12 years may still be in effect, buy the dip. As always, my predictions are no better than coin flips.