A late rally lifts the major stock indices to small gains for this option cycle. The new normal for me, is greatly reduced trading activity as compared to 2020. My self-grade this month is B-, with modest gains.
Here are a few etfs, year-to-date, no dividends:
SPY
SP500 19.3%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 17.6%
IWM Russell 2000 14.8%
EEM
emerging market 0.5%
GLD gold -7.3%
TLT US20 yr
treasury -8.1%
SLV silver -12.2%
My
trading account +12.0% for 2021. Yes, I am trailing all three US stock index
funds. However, if you offered me a peaceful up 12% in January, I
would have taken it. Again, after my debacle during 2020, safety
first, peace of mind first. I am not a youngster, so don’t have
time to earn back huge losses.
I don’t have any great
insights as to market action. More than a few got excited about the
modest decline, thinking it was prelude to bigger declines. A larger
group of perma-bulls have only seen bull markets, with higher highs,
higher lows. A secular bear market will eventually come, and those
that can’t adapt may see with boats capsize. Of course, while the
bull marches ahead, some will say, the bear will never come.
It is true that it is near impossible to time the bear market. At the turn, the majority of market timers will be wrong. It has to be that way, because tops occur with a relative maximum number of buyers, few sellers. That’s the way market work. I wish I had something more insightful, more entertaining to write.
