Saturday, February 18, 2023

Rally rolls on, then stumbles, Grade C+

The 2023 US stock market rallies keeps on rolling, then stumbles. I make modest gains, as I remain in chicken mode. My account is up 4.4% for calendar 2023. As expected this lags the major indexes. QQQ is up a whopping 13% already. It is extremely unlikely to annualize that torrid pace. If it did that would mean up over 70% for a year.

QQQ Nasdaq 100 13.1%
IWM Russell 2000 10.8%
SPY SP500 6.5%
EEM emerging mkt 4.7%

TLT US20 yr 2.8%
GLD gold 1.0%
SLV silver -9.1%

I am keeping my eyes on TLT, the treasury bond etf. The rally in bonds has sputtered. Competition from higher yields usually means tougher sledding for stocks. Precious metals are at the bottom on 2023 standings. Again, higher interest rates make it more expensive to hold metals.

Some small new plays this past month include ABNB, AMD, AXP, UPS. I sell strangles, often delta hedging via buying a very few shares. These are tiny positions.

On a completely different topic, it is new piano day for me. A Roland FP10 digital is scheduled to arrive today. I am a self taught (with the online aids), about a dozen years in. Playing music does wonders for my mental health. Piano in particular, requires my complete attention, to play near my potential. I recommend taking up a musical instrument, even though it takes substantial time and effort to progress.