Early post: Talking Turkey

I’m posting early because I won’t have time this weekend. It has been a sour week with two hard down days and only a modest relief rally on Wednesday. I am down about 6% for the three days, which is really bad. During the next few weeks, posts may be late, abbreviated, or missing. I am not gone, just busy. Enjoy that turkey and the leftovers. Gobble gobble.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near the end is price per contract)

Mon Markets tumble lower. I lose about 4.2% for the day. Ouch. Now in the red for 2018. What was the license plate on that truck? I did not see this coming. I thought I was relatively conservatively positioned, but with another big down day for my account, the market is telling me that my math is off. We aren’t in calm waters any more. Market storms rage, sometimes for no apparent reason.

Cover QQQ Nov30 150 p 43
Cover NFLX Nov23 250 p 194

Roll BA for debit: Cover BA Dec 330 p 1313 big loss
Sell BA Dec 295 p 330

Roll BA for credit: Cover BA Dec 400 c 23 profit
Sell BA Dec 375 c 110

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Dec7 285 p 182 profit
Sell TSLA Dec7 305 p 323

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov30 295 p 105 profit
Sell TSLA Nov30 320 p 329

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov23 1850 c 36
Sell AMZN Nov23 1750 c 90

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov30 1970 c 60
Sell AMZN Dec7 1890 c 184

Roll NVDA for credit: Cover NVDA Dec 230 c 18

Sell NVDA Dec 205 c 56

Sell NFLX Dec7 340 c 52
Sell QQQ Jan 187 c 27

Sell BRKB Jan 230 c 208
Sell TSLA Dec 315 p 830

Tue Down dog market continues with a dreaded gap down open. I follow my rules and close positions as the strike prices are breached. The fills turn out to be near the worst levels of the day. I take some massive hits, losing another 4.6% on the day. Yikes.

Cover TSLA Nov30 312.5 p 420 for profit
Cover QQQ Nov23 160 p 255 for big loss

Cover NFLX Nov30 265 p 1650 whopper loss
Cover AMZN Dec 1500 p 10275 monster loss

Sell TSLA Dec7 375 c 475
Sell SPY Jan 295 c 19
Sell NFLX Dec7 170 p 34

Sell BRKB Dec 230 c 81
Sell FB Jan 175 c 16

Wed Turkeys get a reprieve. The selling lets up for one day. We will see if there is more. I gain 2.4% today, which would be great in isolation, but isn’t good after losing 4% on two consecutive days.

Sell TSLA Dec7 390 c 106
Sell AMZN Dec 1100 p 191
Sell TSLA Nov30 380 c 89

Sell NFLX Nov30 200 p 46
Sell AMZN Dec7 1250 p 300

Monthly: Waterfall decline in NVDA 158 - 25 Grade C-

Nvidia NVDA is a text book example of a waterfall decline. NVDA was the best performing large cap stock for many years, before it lost about 40% in six weeks. Be careful out there.
I count 158 winners, 25 losers for the November cycle. It was a crazy month of trades. I lost about 5% for the cycle. Many of the losers were whale size, most of the wins minnow size. This is what tends to happen during a large move, for premium sellers, selling low cost options.

The good news is that I survived, and mostly stayed within my trading rules. The rules didn’t lead to profits. However, Rule #1 is to live to trade another day, and here I am despite the wild market action, and a few 2 or 3 standard deviation moves against me.

Here are a few etfs ytd (no dividends)
SPY +2.95% S&P 500 US large cap stocks
IWM -0.3% Russelll 2000 US small cap

GLD -6.5% gold
TLT -9.6% US 20 year treasury etf

EEM -13.2% emerging market equities
SLV -15.4% silver

My account +0.8%. Basically break even for the year. I am lagging SPY, but ahead of IWM which I see as my dual benchmarks. A few trades here or there could have made things a lot better, or a lot worse. Only SPY is positive in this bunch, so it has been a tough year for a lot of people.

I lost a lot this cycle in Amazon. I took on too my risk on the rebound rally. Of course, hindsight makes trading look easy. All any of us can do is move forward. Hopefully learn a few lessons, hopefully have a bit better luck, a bit of a better read on what has been a difficult market for many.

Reports may be late, or abbreviated, as I have many other demands on my time. Come the new year, I will have more time for blogging, perhaps more for trading.

Weekly: Jaws Deux: AMZN NVDA

Just when I thought the water might be safe again, the menacing shark music plays again. I take huge hits this week in AMZN, a big loss in AAPL. I step back into NVDA, thankfully after the big gap down on earnings. I lose about 5% for the week, most of that on Monday. I am back to near break even for the year. Sounds horrible, but if that is the result after one of my worst weeks of the year, it isn’t all bad news.

Mon Veterans Day
Pain. I lose 4.8% today. Just when I thought it might be safe in the water, the shark music starts up, the dreaded dorsal fin drives the terrified crowd towards shore. With blood in the water, it is chaos. Okay, maybe a bit dramatic, but it was a painful down day for me.
Cover AAPL Nov 195 p 350 for loss

The rest are profits
Cover TSLA Dec 250 p 405
Cover TSLA Dec7 305 p 765
Cover SPY Dec 240 p 69
Cover QQQ Nov 160 p 46
Cover TSLA Nov23 305 p 213

Cover GOOGL Nov 1375 c 05

Sell AMZN Nov 1800 c 192

Sell TSLA Nov 345 c 375
Sell AMZN Dec7 1870 c 795

Sell MSFT Dec 120 c 30
Sell AMZN Nov30 1920 c 280

Sell AAPL Nov23 172.5 p 31
Sell NFLX Nov30 365 c 39

Sell AMZN Nov 1825 c 170
Sell BRKB Dec 220 c 425

Sell AAPL Nov23 215 c 24
Sell AMZN Nov23 1850 c 398

Tue A morning relief rally fades to flat by the close. I recover about 1/3 of Monday’s big loss, about +1.6%. In isolation making that much in one day is fantastic. In context, of a huge loss the day before, not so much.
I close a few positions for profit to free up buying power and to rebalance deltas

Cover QQQ Nov 184 c 01
Cover AAPL Nov 230 c 01
Cover AMZN Nov 1800 c 90

Cover TSLA Nov23 375 c 147
Cover TSLA Nov30 385 c 199

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov30 350 c 1069
Sell TSLA Dec 365 c 1236

Sell AMZN Nov 1750 c 230
Sell TSLA Nov 365 c 65

Wed Another morning rally fades. Amazon gets hit, and I breach a mental stop level, closing one leg for another huge loss. Yet another head fake in Tesla has me chasing my tail. I lose 2.3% today. A really bad day.

Cover AMZN Nov 1600 p 2465 huge loss
Cover TSLA Nov 330 p 256 profit

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov30 1920 c 200 for profit
Sell AMZN Nov30 1840 c 465

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov 345 c 639 for loss
Sell TSLA Nov30 360 c 786

Thu Another painful day, even though the monetary losses were small. I get stopped out of a couple of legs on Amazon on the morning dip, and book the losses. Some might question taking the losses. However, I had too many deltas at the worst levels. Rule #1 is live to trade another day. Many accounts have been washed away by the modest market moves. There may only be a small chance of the decline accelerating even more, but if that causes a margin call, eventually it will come true. The account can be damaged beyond repair on one outlier move.

Cover AMZN Nov30 1550 p 5900 whopper loss
Cover AMZN Dec7 1870 c 535 for profit
Cover AMZN Nov23 1750 c 289 profit
Cover AMZN Nov30 1840 c 277 profit

Roll AMZN for huge debit: Cover AMZN Nov23 1550 p 4485 whopper loss
Sell AMZN Nov23 1400 p 695

Sell TSLA Nov23 312.5 p 134
Sell AMZN Nov30 1400 p 470

I started the day trying to offset delta by selling calls, but the decline hit my stop levels
Sell AMZN Nov30 1800 c 465
Sell AMZN Nov23 1750 c 315

Fri Nvidia continues its waterfall decline. I sell vol on NVDA. I rebalance and roll on Tesla. Mostly, the week ends with a whimper, as I make a little bit of money today. Down hard for the week.

Sell TSLA Dec7 285 p 213
Sell TSLA Nov23 295 p 32

Sell TSLA Nov30 295 p 164
Sell BA Nov30 375 c 27

Sell NVDA Nov30 210 c 15
Sell NVDA Nov30 125 p 25
Sell NVDA Dec 230 c 35

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov 350 c 482 for loss
Sell TSLA Dec 370 c 1464

Weekly: Most wonderful time of the year

The song by that title is about Christmas. October to January tends to be among the most bullish three month time periods for the stock market. This week, we had a strong rally, and then some give back. Is the bull back? Hard to say, but the bears certainly were scrambling for cover. I rolled up and down, got head faked, took a few losses, but mostly it was an extremely positive week for me.

A heads up, updates are going to be late, perhaps abbreviated for a few weeks, as I have other demands on my time. I will keep posting, so I am not gone.
Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near the end is price per contract).

Mon Tesla gives me a head fake. Because I am short so many options, a modest move in the stock caused a big change in my delta. I close a bunch of legs at a profit. Would have been better off doing nothing, but taking profits, rebalancing back towards neutral isn’t a terrible thing. Overall a nice up day for me. All of these closed for a profit:

Cover TSLA Nov30 400 c 225
Cover TSLA Nov 370 c 305

Cover TSLA Nov9 295 p 138
Cover TSLA Nov9 295 p 138
Cover TSLA Nov 300 p 470

Cover TSLA Nov30 275 p 450
Cover TSLA Nov 270 p 163

Elsewhere Berkshire Hathaway reported good earnings, moves higher.
Sell BRKB Dec 195 p 102

Sell BRKB Nov 200 p 40

Sell TSLA Dec 400 c 415

Sell AMZN Nov 1850 c 163
Sell AMZN Nov9 1800 c 115 daytrade exit 90 for profit

Tue Cover AMZN Nov 2400 c 03 profit

Cover AMZN Nov23 2000 c 89 profit
Cover TSLA Nov 390 c 117 profit

Roll TSLA for credit:Cover TSLA Nov30 295 p 450 profit

Sell TSLA Nov30 320 p 895

Wed Election results are near what has been projected, market powers up all day long. I am not as long as I would like. I make about 2% for the day, which is pretty good considering how much reserve I have, and how many calls I sold. I roll up.

Cover TSLA Nov 400 c 50 profit
Cover AMZN Nov 1850 c 695 big loss
Cover BRKB Dec 195 p 63 profit

Buy BRKB shares 219.80 to offset sold calls

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov23 1450 p 174 profit
Sell AMZN Nov23 1550 p 483

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov9 350 c 583 for loss
Sell TSLA Nov9 350 c 1693

Sell SBUX Jan 57.5 p 26

Sell SPY Nov 267 p 34
Sell NFLX Nov30 265 p 153

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov23 280 p 126 profit
Sell TSLA Nov23 305 p 291

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov 290 p 101 profit
Sell TSLA Nov 315 p 258

Roll COST credit: Cover COST Dec 195 p 39 for profit
Sell COST Dec 210 p 96

Roll AMZN credit: Cover AMZN Dec 1350 p 491 profit
Sell AMZN Dec 1500 p 1614

Sell QQQ Nov 160 p 49
Sell BRKB Nov 210 p 51

Sell AMZN Nov30 1450 p 525
Sell SPY Nov30 258 p 58

Thu A bit of give back after the big rally day. I flail around without doing much good. I lose about 0.2% for the day. I take the TSLA head fake again and it costs me. I sell some Jan puts on SPY and QQQ.

Cover TSLA Nov30 320 p 750 profit
Cover TSLA Nov 315 p 214 profit
Cover TSLA Nov 360 c 925 big loss

Sell QQQ Jan 145 p 76
Sell SPY Jan 245 p 110
Sell MSFT Dec 95 p 35

Sell BRKB Dec 210 p 140
Sell SPG Dec 160 p 53

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov30 1450 p 247
Sell AMZN Nov30 1550 p 631

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN 1450 p 68 profit
Sell AMZN Nov 1600 p 336

Sell TSLA Nov 330 p 320
Sell TSLA Nov9 335 p 65 cover 47 daytrade profit

Fri More give back. I lose about .66% today. Still up nicely for the week.
Cover BRKB Nov 210 p 29 profit
Cover AAPL Nov 245 c 01 profit

Sell AMZN Nov30 1970 c 280
Sell TSLA Nov30 3125.5 p 550

Sell BRKB Dec 230 c 155
Sell AMZN Nov 1900 c 141

Sat Assigned on TSLA 340 call, I count as a loss

Weekly: Crash helmet on

Monday felt like the prelude to a crash. When my account went to -10% for the day, I put on my crash helmet. I got stopped out on some positions (mental stops), and closed some more positions. The market didn’t crash on Tuesday. Instead, a massive three day rally got me all of the loss back and then some, even with a defensive stance (vs increasing risk, aka as gambling, to try and make back the huge loss).

Rule #1 is to live to trade another day. Even though the market was way oversold on Monday, I didn’t want to risk another big down day on Tuesday, that might have resulted in margin calls. A big gap down would have been especially difficult. So I took my lumps and regrouped. As it turned out, I rolled up with the rally. It felt like at least a short term low was in. I saw more than a few people online saying that they were cashing in, or getting out. Capitulation kind of behavior, with some almost proud to be 80% cash. A lot of people were like me, duck and cover. However, many are still in that mode, missing the massive rally off the lows.

I didn’t trade particularly well, but by taking the middle road and closing some positions at profit to mitigate risk, I had a positive week, despite near panic at the Monday lows.

Sat TSLA Oct26 300 calls assigned over the weekend. I sell shares at 300. I count this as a loss.

Here are the trades from a wild week (p=puts, c=calls, number near the end is price per contract).

Mon Another really bad day for me. Down 10% at the worst levels, I cover some positions, in the interest of self presentation. I am down approximately 20% for calendar October. 8% might be a whole year of premium selling in a low volatility environment. Well, we are not in Kansas any more. So I took my 8% hit. It is a frightening day, as I close some positions before they reach their stops. Again, at -10% for the day, it is time to save the ship.

Rule #1 Live to trade another day (yes, its worth repeating).

Cover AMZN Nov 1750 c 680 profit
Cover AMZN Nov9 1475 p 5080 huge loss

Cover SPY Nov 262 p 616 big loss
Cover TSLA Nov9 270 p 158 profit

Cover AMZN Nov 1400 p 2755 huge loss
Cover TSLA Nov 250 p 178 profit

Cover PANW Nov 180 p 830 huge loss
Cover NVDA Nov2 185 p 820 huge loss

Cover TSLA Nov23 285 p 575 profit
Cover TSLA Nov9 300 p 440 profit

Cover NFLX Nov290 p 16.70 huge loss

Buy TSLA shares at 344.58

Sell AMZN Nov9 1200 p 195
Sell TSLA Nov9 400 c 84

Roll AMZN Cover AMZN Dec 2000 c 349 profit
Sell AMZN Dec 1900 c 696

Sell AMZN Nov 1775 c 520

Sell AMZN Nov2 1750 c 90

Sell BA Dec 400 c 146

Sell AMZN Nov9 1800 c 255
Sell NFLX Nov 210 p 140

Sell AMZN Nov 1750 c 890
Sell TSLA Nov30 285 p 615

Sell AAPL Nov2 187.5 p 40
Sell TSLA Nov 300 p 585

Tue The market closes near its highs for the day. I climb out of the cellar of the -8% Monday with a +3% Tuesday.

Sell FB Nov2 119 p 41 pre-earnings
Sell TSLA Nov30 375 c 685 daytrade sell 675 profit

Sell AMZN Nov9 1750 c 275 daytrade sell 245 profit
Sell SPY Nov 239 p 63

Sell AMZN Nov2 1700 c 70
Sell TSLA Nov9 350 c 470

Sell SPG Nov 175 p 101
Sell NVDA Nov2 150 p 15

Sell TSLA Nov9 275 p 168
Sell TSLA Nov23 385 c 315
Sell TSLA Nov 390 c 170

Cover AMZN Nov 1775 c 355 profit

Wed Two up days in a row for the first time all month. With a 3.6% gain, during the past two days, I have almost made back the big loss on Monday.

Cover AMZN Nov 1875 c 168 profit
Cover AMZN Nov2 1750 c 34 profit

Cover TSLA Nov23 385 c 298 profit
Cover AMZN Nov9 1800 c 127 profit

Sell TSLA Dec 250 p 530

Sell TSLA Nov 295 p 750
Sell PAYC Nov 145 c 30

Sell SPY Nov23 240 p 39
Sell QQQ Nov30 150 p 68

Sell NFLX Nov23 250 p 242
Sell AMZN Nov23 1450 p 1345

Roll BA 129 credit: Cover BA Nov 300 p 60 profit
Sell BA Nov 325 p 198

Roll AMZN 179 credit: Cover AMZN Nov9 1200 p 50
Sell AMZN Nov9 1350 p 229

Sell SPY Nov30 242 p 77
Sell FB Dec 115 p 38

Sell MSFT Dec 90 p 65
Sell AMZN Nov 1300 p 325

Thu Third up day in a row. After the close Apple earnings disappoint. I cover some Amazon calls. After being given a reprieve on the decline, I don’t want to risk a big loss that could come with a fourth big up day.

Cover AMZN Nov2 1700 c 465 big loss
Cover AMZN Nov 1950 c 76 profit

Cover AMZN Nov2 1800 c 10 profit
Sell TSLA Nov9 305 p 197

Roll TSLA 485 credit:Cover TSLA Nov30 285 p 451 profit
Sell TSLA Dec 305 p 926

Sell SPY Nov 254 p 53

Roll AMZN 167 credit: Cover AMZN Nov9 1350 p 77

Sell AMZN Nov9 1450 p 244

Sell TSLA Nov23 280 p 303

Sell TSLA Nov 290 p 320

Sell TSLA Nov9 295 p 187

Fri Cover AMZN Dec 2300 c 91 profit
Cover SPG Dec 150 p 64 profit

Sell AMZN Nov23 2000 c 118
Sell AAPL Nov 230 c 29

Sell BRKB Dec 180 p 72

Sell SBUX Dec 55 p 22 earnings

Roll AMZN: Cover AMZN Nov 1300 p 72 profit
Sell AMZN Nov 1450 p 310

Roll BA: Cover BA Dec 295 p 112 profit
Sell BA Dec 330 p 364