Saturday, November 17, 2018

Monthly: Waterfall decline in NVDA 158 - 25 Grade C-

Nvidia NVDA is a text book example of a waterfall decline. NVDA was the best performing large cap stock for many years, before it lost about 40% in six weeks. Be careful out there.
I count 158 winners, 25 losers for the November cycle. It was a crazy month of trades. I lost about 5% for the cycle. Many of the losers were whale size, most of the wins minnow size. This is what tends to happen during a large move, for premium sellers, selling low cost options.

The good news is that I survived, and mostly stayed within my trading rules. The rules didn’t lead to profits. However, Rule #1 is to live to trade another day, and here I am despite the wild market action, and a few 2 or 3 standard deviation moves against me.

Here are a few etfs ytd (no dividends)
SPY +2.95% S&P 500 US large cap stocks
IWM -0.3% Russelll 2000 US small cap

GLD -6.5% gold
TLT -9.6% US 20 year treasury etf

EEM -13.2% emerging market equities
SLV -15.4% silver

My account +0.8%. Basically break even for the year. I am lagging SPY, but ahead of IWM which I see as my dual benchmarks. A few trades here or there could have made things a lot better, or a lot worse. Only SPY is positive in this bunch, so it has been a tough year for a lot of people.

I lost a lot this cycle in Amazon. I took on too my risk on the rebound rally. Of course, hindsight makes trading look easy. All any of us can do is move forward. Hopefully learn a few lessons, hopefully have a bit better luck, a bit of a better read on what has been a difficult market for many.

Reports may be late, or abbreviated, as I have many other demands on my time. Come the new year, I will have more time for blogging, perhaps more for trading.


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