US stocks bolt out of the gate in January, with QQQ up over 5%. Me, I shoot myself in the foot, up a mere 1.2%. The culprits are Apple and Tesla running way too hot. I took big losses on sold TSLA calls.
Still, I am up for the month. Self-grade is C-. Could have been a lot worse, had I stayed in the way of the runaway train. Of course, leveraged longs on those hot stocks made a ton.
I’ll regroup and reassess my stance. I expected a modest decline, due to delayed selling to book gains in the new year, and pay tax in April 2021.
Overall Internet chatter remains mixed. There seem to be more people convinced that leveraged long is a no-lose strategy. More people that had a good 2019 and want to trade for living. On the other side, there also seem to be more regular folks that are raising cash, or moving all to cash.
I remain cautiously bullish. Too cautious so far, but the year is young yet.
I posted a lengthy year-end recap on Reddit. For those that missed it, here is the link
Saturday, January 18, 2020
Wednesday, January 01, 2020
Blockbuster year Grade A
Stock markets boom in 2019. Bonds, gold also do well. My trading account up about 55%, grade A. The backdrop is up 28% for SPY, but 55% is beyond my expectations.
For new readers, what I mostly do is sell naked strangles way out of the money. I have mostly leaned bullish this year. When adjustments are needed, I may buy at the money options to get back to the desired delta.
That’s probably the biggest change from two years ago, buying the at the money options on gap moves that threaten the position. For small adjustments, I sell additional layers. I still tend to take losses if the strike price is breached. After I got up 30% for 2019, I became more conservative. Even so, I was able to keep up with the bulls.
I often say predictions are for entertainment. The overall tenor of the market seems muted to me, for such a big up year. There is still not much public stock market chatter where I am and online. There are a few signs of heat, such as people bragging about big gains, thinking about trading full time after a lucky streak. Right now, there isn’t a fever pitch that might follow such a big up year.
Me? I remain cautious. I took out some money to pay the substantial tax bill that is coming.
For new readers, what I mostly do is sell naked strangles way out of the money. I have mostly leaned bullish this year. When adjustments are needed, I may buy at the money options to get back to the desired delta.
That’s probably the biggest change from two years ago, buying the at the money options on gap moves that threaten the position. For small adjustments, I sell additional layers. I still tend to take losses if the strike price is breached. After I got up 30% for 2019, I became more conservative. Even so, I was able to keep up with the bulls.
I often say predictions are for entertainment. The overall tenor of the market seems muted to me, for such a big up year. There is still not much public stock market chatter where I am and online. There are a few signs of heat, such as people bragging about big gains, thinking about trading full time after a lucky streak. Right now, there isn’t a fever pitch that might follow such a big up year.
Me? I remain cautious. I took out some money to pay the substantial tax bill that is coming.
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