Saturday, June 18, 2022

New Lows after a failed rally, grade C

 A nine percent rally fails and most US stock indexes make new lows for 2022. I navigate the storm seas, losing a bit more, but less than SPY and QQQ. I am down about 11.8% for calendar 2022, down another 1.4% for the trading month.

Here are some ETFs, the damage is wide and severe for 2022:

GLD gold 0.2%
SLV silver -7.1%
EEM emerging mkt -18.8%
SPY SP500 -22.9%

TLT US20 yr -24.4%
IWM Russell 2000 -25.7%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 -31.0%

Perhaps even more stunning than the bear market in US stocks is TLT’s performance. Bond investors are down even more than SPY, thought not as bad as QQQ. I didn’t see this coming, but down 12% is a lot better than -23% or -31%. The only winner on the list is a tiny gain in gold.

To add insult to injury, inflation is high. Prices at the local coffee shop are up up over 35% for 2022. Priced in coffee servings, an index portfolio is down over 50% in coffee purchasing power.

All things are possible. I remain cautious, with decent buying power reserves. I am still losing though. Monday is a stock market holiday. I hope all the readers are finding shelter from the economic storm. 

Stay grateful. If you have money to invest you are in the upper half of the US population. Many are living week to week. Many are falling behind. Many are experiencing severe economic hardship. At some point the pain stops, but the current light in the tunnel looks to me like another train, not an exit.