Sunday, February 24, 2019

Weekly: Same story, same result

It is more of the same, as the stock market has its ninth straight up week. I make decent gains, right around 2%. I grow increasingly nervous, and fight the urge to raise cash. I play Walmart on the post earnings breakout. WMT flops, but I come out okay because I am way out of the money on sold puts.

So going forward, same old same old: rebalance back towards near delta neutral on most underlyings, sell premium way out of the money. Be ready to adjust and/or take losses as needed.

Saturday, February 16, 2019

Monthly: boom goes the dynamite, grade A

Market booms ahead, erased the losses from December 2018.
Here are a few etfs, ranked best to worst for 2019 year to date (dividends not included)

IWM +16.7% Russell 2000 US small cap
QQQ +11.5% Nasdaq 100, mostly tech

SPY +11.0% S&P 500 US large cap
EEM +7,8% Emerging markets equity
GLD +2.9% gold

SLV +2.1% silver
TLT +0.4% US 20 year treasuries

My account +16.7% right there with IWM. This despite what I consider a relatively cautious market stance. Many days, I tried to rebalance towards delta neutral by the end of the day. Amazon accounts for a lot of the gain. Some days the market ran too hot. This past week, I was lagging the bulls, because I had sold so many calls.
Notable new long for this week is ANET Arista Networks. Most of the earnings plays I did were winners. The one notable flop was a short position in Facebook. Some I played after the news was out.
I could have done better, but up over 16% for six weeks is remarkable, so I give myself a rare grade A rating for the trading month.
As I have said, one recent change is abandoning the count of winners and losers. Win percentage is an interesting stat, but not that meaningful. In past years, I aimed for a high win percentage. Now I mostly focus on delta, possibly the gamma, and the net liquidating value.

Saturday, February 09, 2019

Weekly: It felt worse than it was

I manage a small gain for the week. It felt like a down week because the market was up early, then faded hard on Thursday. It is the pause that refreshes? Macro news about China trade, Brexit, another government shutdown continue to loom large. I scramble to rebalance towards delta neutral. On some days, several moves are needed. Sometimes the morning rebalance has to be reversed by after noon.

Only notable new long is IRBT. Irobot up on earnings.

Friday, February 01, 2019

Weekly: Boom Boom Bing

Another big up week for my account, up about 4% for the week. I hit on most of my earnings plays, though Apple ran too hot, Amazon too cold. I swung and missed on Facebook. Microsoft, GE, Tesla all came in just about right. I made a small play on Anthem and lucked out.

I changed two things recently. I’ve been balancing back towards delta neutral on many underlyings, and stopped counting wins and losses. Used to be I tried to be net long on most underlyings, and I focused on closing trades for wins. So far this year, support and resistance on the chart have been working this year. We will see if my winning streak continues. One could only imagine the gains, if I had a strong bullish tilt. As is, I’ll take up 4% any week.