2018 in review, down 8%, grade C-

SPY close down about 6% for the year. My account about -7%, so in line. Russell 2000 got shelled -12%, while the QQQ was down a modest -1%. I stopped logging every trade. When the crap hit the fan, I was doing

Tracking etfs best to worst for 2018 (close to close, no dividends)

GLD -1.9%
TLT -4.2%

SPY -6.0%
SLV -9.2%

IWM -12.1%
EEM -29.8%

All of these etfs were losers. The big cap gainers in SPY included MRK and PFE. The losers CAT, MMM.

For me, the five best trading tickers (non-etfs): TSLA, BA, GOOGL, TLRY, AAPL. The worst five were: AMZN, CMG, FB, BRKB, CAT. Amazon by far was the biggest loser. I got caught both on the upside and downside. At one time AMZN was my best trading stock for the year, then the fall swoon happened and I got crushed. Similarly, at one time TSLA was my worst ticker for the year, then it came back. It is easy to read too much into this.

At the Christmas Eve lows I was down 20% for the year. As volatility declined, I narrowed the loss to -8% in a week. Far be it for me to give advice. I’ll take it as it comes. All things are possible, new highs, new lows, a trading range. I’ve been rolling up and down, to stay closer to delta neutral, rather than try to guess which way the market is going.

Relief rally

After the worst Christmas Eve in history, the market has its biggest point gain ever. My account rebounds with the market. I was down about 20 percent for the year at the lows. Made back maybe 8 percent during the rally.

I rolled down, then up, down than up, trying to stay near delta neutral on a lot of underlyings. I made a bunch of trades. It reminds me of speed chess, when instinct takes over. There doesn’t feel like there is time to think, just glance and react.

I’ve gotten used to these short posts, without all the detail, so may stay with the format for a while. Anything is possible. If someone had asked me for the odds of a 5 percent market decline on Christmas Eve, I might have said less than one percent, then it happened. So new highs or new lows are possible. Being down about 12 percent for 2018, makes my opinion less valuable.

I’ll post a recap of 2018 in a few days. Happy New Year.

Shadow of the bear Grade F

Another short post. The market is kicking my butt. I lost count of winners and losers for the December cycle. A guess might be 90 winners, 25 losers. Easier to track is net liquidating value. I was down about 15 percent for the month. Same number for 2018 now. 

So the grade is F, failing. The good news, is that I didn’t double down into the trending decline. I am still standing, though wobbly. Biggest loser by far is Amazon, but many stocks contributed to the flood of red ink. One of my few winners is Tesla, which ironically was one of my biggest losers for the year after the 420 tweet, then smoke.

I told someone else that after a bad time, turtle mode is my preference. Get back to basics, don’t try to make the losses back quickly. The gambling mentality can turn minus 15 into minus 30 real quick.

Happy holidays to all.

Light at the end of the tunnel

Another short post, the light at the end of the tunnel turned out to be another train. Crunch. I eek out a small gain for the week. Another down Friday ruins what might have been a good week. Costco joins the ranks of stocks getting hit. I take a loss on one COST leg. Hopefully I’ll get back to more details soon, but I have been crazy busy lately.

Meat grinder market

A short check in post. The market has been a meat grinder. I lost over 2 percent on Friday, back to about minus 5 percent for calendar 2018. Be careful out there.

Early post: Talking Turkey

I’m posting early because I won’t have time this weekend. It has been a sour week with two hard down days and only a modest relief rally on Wednesday. I am down about 6% for the three days, which is really bad. During the next few weeks, posts may be late, abbreviated, or missing. I am not gone, just busy. Enjoy that turkey and the leftovers. Gobble gobble.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near the end is price per contract)

Mon Markets tumble lower. I lose about 4.2% for the day. Ouch. Now in the red for 2018. What was the license plate on that truck? I did not see this coming. I thought I was relatively conservatively positioned, but with another big down day for my account, the market is telling me that my math is off. We aren’t in calm waters any more. Market storms rage, sometimes for no apparent reason.

Cover QQQ Nov30 150 p 43
Cover NFLX Nov23 250 p 194

Roll BA for debit: Cover BA Dec 330 p 1313 big loss
Sell BA Dec 295 p 330

Roll BA for credit: Cover BA Dec 400 c 23 profit
Sell BA Dec 375 c 110

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Dec7 285 p 182 profit
Sell TSLA Dec7 305 p 323

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov30 295 p 105 profit
Sell TSLA Nov30 320 p 329

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov23 1850 c 36
Sell AMZN Nov23 1750 c 90

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov30 1970 c 60
Sell AMZN Dec7 1890 c 184

Roll NVDA for credit: Cover NVDA Dec 230 c 18

Sell NVDA Dec 205 c 56

Sell NFLX Dec7 340 c 52
Sell QQQ Jan 187 c 27

Sell BRKB Jan 230 c 208
Sell TSLA Dec 315 p 830

Tue Down dog market continues with a dreaded gap down open. I follow my rules and close positions as the strike prices are breached. The fills turn out to be near the worst levels of the day. I take some massive hits, losing another 4.6% on the day. Yikes.

Cover TSLA Nov30 312.5 p 420 for profit
Cover QQQ Nov23 160 p 255 for big loss

Cover NFLX Nov30 265 p 1650 whopper loss
Cover AMZN Dec 1500 p 10275 monster loss

Sell TSLA Dec7 375 c 475
Sell SPY Jan 295 c 19
Sell NFLX Dec7 170 p 34

Sell BRKB Dec 230 c 81
Sell FB Jan 175 c 16

Wed Turkeys get a reprieve. The selling lets up for one day. We will see if there is more. I gain 2.4% today, which would be great in isolation, but isn’t good after losing 4% on two consecutive days.

Sell TSLA Dec7 390 c 106
Sell AMZN Dec 1100 p 191
Sell TSLA Nov30 380 c 89

Sell NFLX Nov30 200 p 46
Sell AMZN Dec7 1250 p 300

Monthly: Waterfall decline in NVDA 158 - 25 Grade C-

Nvidia NVDA is a text book example of a waterfall decline. NVDA was the best performing large cap stock for many years, before it lost about 40% in six weeks. Be careful out there.
I count 158 winners, 25 losers for the November cycle. It was a crazy month of trades. I lost about 5% for the cycle. Many of the losers were whale size, most of the wins minnow size. This is what tends to happen during a large move, for premium sellers, selling low cost options.

The good news is that I survived, and mostly stayed within my trading rules. The rules didn’t lead to profits. However, Rule #1 is to live to trade another day, and here I am despite the wild market action, and a few 2 or 3 standard deviation moves against me.

Here are a few etfs ytd (no dividends)
SPY +2.95% S&P 500 US large cap stocks
IWM -0.3% Russelll 2000 US small cap

GLD -6.5% gold
TLT -9.6% US 20 year treasury etf

EEM -13.2% emerging market equities
SLV -15.4% silver

My account +0.8%. Basically break even for the year. I am lagging SPY, but ahead of IWM which I see as my dual benchmarks. A few trades here or there could have made things a lot better, or a lot worse. Only SPY is positive in this bunch, so it has been a tough year for a lot of people.

I lost a lot this cycle in Amazon. I took on too my risk on the rebound rally. Of course, hindsight makes trading look easy. All any of us can do is move forward. Hopefully learn a few lessons, hopefully have a bit better luck, a bit of a better read on what has been a difficult market for many.

Reports may be late, or abbreviated, as I have many other demands on my time. Come the new year, I will have more time for blogging, perhaps more for trading.

Weekly: Jaws Deux: AMZN NVDA

Just when I thought the water might be safe again, the menacing shark music plays again. I take huge hits this week in AMZN, a big loss in AAPL. I step back into NVDA, thankfully after the big gap down on earnings. I lose about 5% for the week, most of that on Monday. I am back to near break even for the year. Sounds horrible, but if that is the result after one of my worst weeks of the year, it isn’t all bad news.

Mon Veterans Day
Pain. I lose 4.8% today. Just when I thought it might be safe in the water, the shark music starts up, the dreaded dorsal fin drives the terrified crowd towards shore. With blood in the water, it is chaos. Okay, maybe a bit dramatic, but it was a painful down day for me.
Cover AAPL Nov 195 p 350 for loss

The rest are profits
Cover TSLA Dec 250 p 405
Cover TSLA Dec7 305 p 765
Cover SPY Dec 240 p 69
Cover QQQ Nov 160 p 46
Cover TSLA Nov23 305 p 213

Cover GOOGL Nov 1375 c 05

Sell AMZN Nov 1800 c 192

Sell TSLA Nov 345 c 375
Sell AMZN Dec7 1870 c 795

Sell MSFT Dec 120 c 30
Sell AMZN Nov30 1920 c 280

Sell AAPL Nov23 172.5 p 31
Sell NFLX Nov30 365 c 39

Sell AMZN Nov 1825 c 170
Sell BRKB Dec 220 c 425

Sell AAPL Nov23 215 c 24
Sell AMZN Nov23 1850 c 398

Tue A morning relief rally fades to flat by the close. I recover about 1/3 of Monday’s big loss, about +1.6%. In isolation making that much in one day is fantastic. In context, of a huge loss the day before, not so much.
I close a few positions for profit to free up buying power and to rebalance deltas

Cover QQQ Nov 184 c 01
Cover AAPL Nov 230 c 01
Cover AMZN Nov 1800 c 90

Cover TSLA Nov23 375 c 147
Cover TSLA Nov30 385 c 199

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov30 350 c 1069
Sell TSLA Dec 365 c 1236

Sell AMZN Nov 1750 c 230
Sell TSLA Nov 365 c 65

Wed Another morning rally fades. Amazon gets hit, and I breach a mental stop level, closing one leg for another huge loss. Yet another head fake in Tesla has me chasing my tail. I lose 2.3% today. A really bad day.

Cover AMZN Nov 1600 p 2465 huge loss
Cover TSLA Nov 330 p 256 profit

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov30 1920 c 200 for profit
Sell AMZN Nov30 1840 c 465

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov 345 c 639 for loss
Sell TSLA Nov30 360 c 786

Thu Another painful day, even though the monetary losses were small. I get stopped out of a couple of legs on Amazon on the morning dip, and book the losses. Some might question taking the losses. However, I had too many deltas at the worst levels. Rule #1 is live to trade another day. Many accounts have been washed away by the modest market moves. There may only be a small chance of the decline accelerating even more, but if that causes a margin call, eventually it will come true. The account can be damaged beyond repair on one outlier move.

Cover AMZN Nov30 1550 p 5900 whopper loss
Cover AMZN Dec7 1870 c 535 for profit
Cover AMZN Nov23 1750 c 289 profit
Cover AMZN Nov30 1840 c 277 profit

Roll AMZN for huge debit: Cover AMZN Nov23 1550 p 4485 whopper loss
Sell AMZN Nov23 1400 p 695

Sell TSLA Nov23 312.5 p 134
Sell AMZN Nov30 1400 p 470

I started the day trying to offset delta by selling calls, but the decline hit my stop levels
Sell AMZN Nov30 1800 c 465
Sell AMZN Nov23 1750 c 315

Fri Nvidia continues its waterfall decline. I sell vol on NVDA. I rebalance and roll on Tesla. Mostly, the week ends with a whimper, as I make a little bit of money today. Down hard for the week.

Sell TSLA Dec7 285 p 213
Sell TSLA Nov23 295 p 32

Sell TSLA Nov30 295 p 164
Sell BA Nov30 375 c 27

Sell NVDA Nov30 210 c 15
Sell NVDA Nov30 125 p 25
Sell NVDA Dec 230 c 35

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov 350 c 482 for loss
Sell TSLA Dec 370 c 1464

Weekly: Most wonderful time of the year

The song by that title is about Christmas. October to January tends to be among the most bullish three month time periods for the stock market. This week, we had a strong rally, and then some give back. Is the bull back? Hard to say, but the bears certainly were scrambling for cover. I rolled up and down, got head faked, took a few losses, but mostly it was an extremely positive week for me.

A heads up, updates are going to be late, perhaps abbreviated for a few weeks, as I have other demands on my time. I will keep posting, so I am not gone.
Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near the end is price per contract).

Mon Tesla gives me a head fake. Because I am short so many options, a modest move in the stock caused a big change in my delta. I close a bunch of legs at a profit. Would have been better off doing nothing, but taking profits, rebalancing back towards neutral isn’t a terrible thing. Overall a nice up day for me. All of these closed for a profit:

Cover TSLA Nov30 400 c 225
Cover TSLA Nov 370 c 305

Cover TSLA Nov9 295 p 138
Cover TSLA Nov9 295 p 138
Cover TSLA Nov 300 p 470

Cover TSLA Nov30 275 p 450
Cover TSLA Nov 270 p 163

Elsewhere Berkshire Hathaway reported good earnings, moves higher.
Sell BRKB Dec 195 p 102

Sell BRKB Nov 200 p 40

Sell TSLA Dec 400 c 415

Sell AMZN Nov 1850 c 163
Sell AMZN Nov9 1800 c 115 daytrade exit 90 for profit

Tue Cover AMZN Nov 2400 c 03 profit

Cover AMZN Nov23 2000 c 89 profit
Cover TSLA Nov 390 c 117 profit

Roll TSLA for credit:Cover TSLA Nov30 295 p 450 profit

Sell TSLA Nov30 320 p 895

Wed Election results are near what has been projected, market powers up all day long. I am not as long as I would like. I make about 2% for the day, which is pretty good considering how much reserve I have, and how many calls I sold. I roll up.

Cover TSLA Nov 400 c 50 profit
Cover AMZN Nov 1850 c 695 big loss
Cover BRKB Dec 195 p 63 profit

Buy BRKB shares 219.80 to offset sold calls

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov23 1450 p 174 profit
Sell AMZN Nov23 1550 p 483

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov9 350 c 583 for loss
Sell TSLA Nov9 350 c 1693

Sell SBUX Jan 57.5 p 26

Sell SPY Nov 267 p 34
Sell NFLX Nov30 265 p 153

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov23 280 p 126 profit
Sell TSLA Nov23 305 p 291

Roll TSLA for credit: Cover TSLA Nov 290 p 101 profit
Sell TSLA Nov 315 p 258

Roll COST credit: Cover COST Dec 195 p 39 for profit
Sell COST Dec 210 p 96

Roll AMZN credit: Cover AMZN Dec 1350 p 491 profit
Sell AMZN Dec 1500 p 1614

Sell QQQ Nov 160 p 49
Sell BRKB Nov 210 p 51

Sell AMZN Nov30 1450 p 525
Sell SPY Nov30 258 p 58

Thu A bit of give back after the big rally day. I flail around without doing much good. I lose about 0.2% for the day. I take the TSLA head fake again and it costs me. I sell some Jan puts on SPY and QQQ.

Cover TSLA Nov30 320 p 750 profit
Cover TSLA Nov 315 p 214 profit
Cover TSLA Nov 360 c 925 big loss

Sell QQQ Jan 145 p 76
Sell SPY Jan 245 p 110
Sell MSFT Dec 95 p 35

Sell BRKB Dec 210 p 140
Sell SPG Dec 160 p 53

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN Nov30 1450 p 247
Sell AMZN Nov30 1550 p 631

Roll AMZN for credit: Cover AMZN 1450 p 68 profit
Sell AMZN Nov 1600 p 336

Sell TSLA Nov 330 p 320
Sell TSLA Nov9 335 p 65 cover 47 daytrade profit

Fri More give back. I lose about .66% today. Still up nicely for the week.
Cover BRKB Nov 210 p 29 profit
Cover AAPL Nov 245 c 01 profit

Sell AMZN Nov30 1970 c 280
Sell TSLA Nov30 3125.5 p 550

Sell BRKB Dec 230 c 155
Sell AMZN Nov 1900 c 141

Sat Assigned on TSLA 340 call, I count as a loss

Weekly: Crash helmet on

Monday felt like the prelude to a crash. When my account went to -10% for the day, I put on my crash helmet. I got stopped out on some positions (mental stops), and closed some more positions. The market didn’t crash on Tuesday. Instead, a massive three day rally got me all of the loss back and then some, even with a defensive stance (vs increasing risk, aka as gambling, to try and make back the huge loss).

Rule #1 is to live to trade another day. Even though the market was way oversold on Monday, I didn’t want to risk another big down day on Tuesday, that might have resulted in margin calls. A big gap down would have been especially difficult. So I took my lumps and regrouped. As it turned out, I rolled up with the rally. It felt like at least a short term low was in. I saw more than a few people online saying that they were cashing in, or getting out. Capitulation kind of behavior, with some almost proud to be 80% cash. A lot of people were like me, duck and cover. However, many are still in that mode, missing the massive rally off the lows.

I didn’t trade particularly well, but by taking the middle road and closing some positions at profit to mitigate risk, I had a positive week, despite near panic at the Monday lows.

Sat TSLA Oct26 300 calls assigned over the weekend. I sell shares at 300. I count this as a loss.

Here are the trades from a wild week (p=puts, c=calls, number near the end is price per contract).

Mon Another really bad day for me. Down 10% at the worst levels, I cover some positions, in the interest of self presentation. I am down approximately 20% for calendar October. 8% might be a whole year of premium selling in a low volatility environment. Well, we are not in Kansas any more. So I took my 8% hit. It is a frightening day, as I close some positions before they reach their stops. Again, at -10% for the day, it is time to save the ship.

Rule #1 Live to trade another day (yes, its worth repeating).

Cover AMZN Nov 1750 c 680 profit
Cover AMZN Nov9 1475 p 5080 huge loss

Cover SPY Nov 262 p 616 big loss
Cover TSLA Nov9 270 p 158 profit

Cover AMZN Nov 1400 p 2755 huge loss
Cover TSLA Nov 250 p 178 profit

Cover PANW Nov 180 p 830 huge loss
Cover NVDA Nov2 185 p 820 huge loss

Cover TSLA Nov23 285 p 575 profit
Cover TSLA Nov9 300 p 440 profit

Cover NFLX Nov290 p 16.70 huge loss

Buy TSLA shares at 344.58

Sell AMZN Nov9 1200 p 195
Sell TSLA Nov9 400 c 84

Roll AMZN Cover AMZN Dec 2000 c 349 profit
Sell AMZN Dec 1900 c 696

Sell AMZN Nov 1775 c 520

Sell AMZN Nov2 1750 c 90

Sell BA Dec 400 c 146

Sell AMZN Nov9 1800 c 255
Sell NFLX Nov 210 p 140

Sell AMZN Nov 1750 c 890
Sell TSLA Nov30 285 p 615

Sell AAPL Nov2 187.5 p 40
Sell TSLA Nov 300 p 585

Tue The market closes near its highs for the day. I climb out of the cellar of the -8% Monday with a +3% Tuesday.

Sell FB Nov2 119 p 41 pre-earnings
Sell TSLA Nov30 375 c 685 daytrade sell 675 profit

Sell AMZN Nov9 1750 c 275 daytrade sell 245 profit
Sell SPY Nov 239 p 63

Sell AMZN Nov2 1700 c 70
Sell TSLA Nov9 350 c 470

Sell SPG Nov 175 p 101
Sell NVDA Nov2 150 p 15

Sell TSLA Nov9 275 p 168
Sell TSLA Nov23 385 c 315
Sell TSLA Nov 390 c 170

Cover AMZN Nov 1775 c 355 profit

Wed Two up days in a row for the first time all month. With a 3.6% gain, during the past two days, I have almost made back the big loss on Monday.

Cover AMZN Nov 1875 c 168 profit
Cover AMZN Nov2 1750 c 34 profit

Cover TSLA Nov23 385 c 298 profit
Cover AMZN Nov9 1800 c 127 profit

Sell TSLA Dec 250 p 530

Sell TSLA Nov 295 p 750
Sell PAYC Nov 145 c 30

Sell SPY Nov23 240 p 39
Sell QQQ Nov30 150 p 68

Sell NFLX Nov23 250 p 242
Sell AMZN Nov23 1450 p 1345

Roll BA 129 credit: Cover BA Nov 300 p 60 profit
Sell BA Nov 325 p 198

Roll AMZN 179 credit: Cover AMZN Nov9 1200 p 50
Sell AMZN Nov9 1350 p 229

Sell SPY Nov30 242 p 77
Sell FB Dec 115 p 38

Sell MSFT Dec 90 p 65
Sell AMZN Nov 1300 p 325

Thu Third up day in a row. After the close Apple earnings disappoint. I cover some Amazon calls. After being given a reprieve on the decline, I don’t want to risk a big loss that could come with a fourth big up day.

Cover AMZN Nov2 1700 c 465 big loss
Cover AMZN Nov 1950 c 76 profit

Cover AMZN Nov2 1800 c 10 profit
Sell TSLA Nov9 305 p 197

Roll TSLA 485 credit:Cover TSLA Nov30 285 p 451 profit
Sell TSLA Dec 305 p 926

Sell SPY Nov 254 p 53

Roll AMZN 167 credit: Cover AMZN Nov9 1350 p 77

Sell AMZN Nov9 1450 p 244

Sell TSLA Nov23 280 p 303

Sell TSLA Nov 290 p 320

Sell TSLA Nov9 295 p 187

Fri Cover AMZN Dec 2300 c 91 profit
Cover SPG Dec 150 p 64 profit

Sell AMZN Nov23 2000 c 118
Sell AAPL Nov 230 c 29

Sell BRKB Dec 180 p 72

Sell SBUX Dec 55 p 22 earnings

Roll AMZN: Cover AMZN Nov 1300 p 72 profit
Sell AMZN Nov 1450 p 310

Roll BA: Cover BA Dec 295 p 112 profit
Sell BA Dec 330 p 364

Weekly: Last FAANG standing

What a crazy week! I lose 6% this week. Tesla then Amazon, then the rest of the market are the culprits. I am right around break even for the year. Trading activity doesn’t always mean profits. SPY is right near break even for the year as well. The good news is that I survive some unpleasant surprises. It could have been a lot, lot worse, given the risky nature of selling naked options.

Rule #1 Live to trade another day

The subject line is last FAANG standing. Right now it is Apple. The others: Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook, Netflix all fell more than 20% from their highs. Apple reports soon. There are still a few stocks doing okay, such as Boeing, Microsoft, McDonalds. Banks have rolled over with the market. Most foreign markets are down for the year.

Mon Sell SPG Dec 140 p 60

Sell BRKB Dec 170 p 48
Sell COST Dec 195 p 84

Sell AXP Nov 95 p 25
Sell TSLA Nov2 350 c 40

Sell SPY Nov 288 c 28
Sell NFLX Nov9 380 c 97

Tue Another ball-buster day for me, down 2%. I get whipsawed out of two positions during the morning lows, then Tesla burns me bad. Noted short-seller Citron says they are now long TSLA. Ouch.

Cover IWM Nov 150 p 416 big loss

Cover SPY Oct26 272.5 p 396 big loss
Sell TSLA Nov 200 p 242

Sell TSLA Nov2 235 p 293
Sell NVDA Nov2 250 c 42

Sell COST Dec 260 c 48
Sell AAPL Nov 245 c 54

Sell BRKB Dec 230 c 51
Sell FB Nov 185 c 27

Sell AMZN Nov 2200 c 219
Sell NFLX Nov 400 c 45

Wed Bad turns into worse as I lose about 8% by the close. I take an additional hit after the close when Tesla reports good earnings.

Cover NVDA Oct26 210 p 615 big loss
Cover FB Oct26 150 p 272 big loss

Cover QQQ Nov 168 p 526 big loss
Cover SPY Nov 268 p 592 big loss

Sell AMZN Nov2 2050 c 239
Sell BRKB Nov 220 c 33

Sell QQQ Nov 184 c 25
Sell SPY Nov 285 c 45

Sell NVDA Nov2 240 c 40
Sell AMZN Dec 2300 c 261

After hours bot TSLA shares @316.75
another lot at 330.67

Yikes!!!!!!!

Thu Big rally day. I make back all of Wednesday’s loss. Then after hours, Alphabet and Amazon report poor earnings. We will see what Friday brings. I did a lot of Tesla trades. Mostly my timing was poor, but I survived the surprise earnings report (moved up by 2 weeks) and the big gap move. Even with poor execution, my middle road let me survive.

Cover QQQ Dec 193 c 27 profit
Cover NVDA Nov2 240 c 29 profit

Cover AMZN Nov 2200 c 190 profit
Cover AMZN Oct26 2250 c 05 profit

Cover TSLA Nov 375 c 225 daytrade profit
Cover TSLA Nov2 330 500 daytrade profit

Cover SPY Nov 285 c 33 profit
Cover QQQ Nov 185 c 19 profit

Roll TLSA for 141 credit Cover TSLA 225 p 200 profit
Sell TSLA 245 p 341

Roll NFLX for 55 credit Cover NFLX 400 c 26 profit
Sell NFLX 375 c 81

Sell TSLA Nov23 225 p 234

Sell TSLA Nov23 375 c 233
Sell TSLA Nov 360 c 305

Sell TSLA Oct26 335 c 59
Sell TSLA Nov9 340 c 505

Sell TSLA Nov 375 c 288
Sell TSLA Nov2 330 c 620

Fri Cover BRKB Nov 200 p 495 big loss
Cover NVDA Nov2 250 c 03 profit

Cover QQQ Oct26 165 p 136 loss
Sell TLSA Nov 250 p 254

Sell BRKB Nov 185 p 110
Sell AMZN Dec 2000 c 705

Sell SPG Dec 150 p 77
Sell QQQ Dec 190 c 25

Sell AMZN Nov2 1800 c 230
Sell BA Nov 400 c 80

Sell LOW Nov 105 c 28
Sell MSFT Nov 120 c 15

Sell NVDA Nov2 230 c 34
Sell NFLX Nov 360 c 110

Sell TSLA Nov2 285 p 150
Sell TSLA Nov 265 p 320

Sell BA Dec 295 p 213
Sell AMZN Nov2 1450 p 239

Sell TSLA Nov9 300 p 585
Cover TSLA Oct26 335 c 254 big loss

Roll TSLA 350 credit: Cover TSLA Nov 265 p
Sell TSLA Nov23 285 p

Roll TSLA 545 credit: Cover Nov23 245 p
Sell TSLA Nov30 275 p

Sell AMZN Nov9 1475 p 649

Sell TSLA Nov 270 p 310
Sell TSLA Nov30 385 c 395

Sell TLSA Nov 370 c 400
Cover AMZN Oct26 1600 p 107 profit

Sell TSLA Nov30 400 c 438
Sell AMZN Nov 1875 c 445

Monthly 81-9, Grade C-, weathering the storm.

I lose a bit over 5% this month. Grade C- because of the big loss. However, market conditions were difficult for many boats. I count 81 winners, 9 losers for the October option cycle.

Unfortunately, many of the losers were huge, and almost all the winners small or tiny. So despite a high win percentage, the losses out weigh the gains, and I have a negative month. Amazon, Facebook, Nvidia are some of the losers. For the most part, I stay within my rules. One winner was Tilray. Selling way, way otm options worked this time.

Here are some etfs year-to-date:
SPY +3.8% S&P 500 US large cap
IWM +0.6% Russell 2000 US small cap

GLD -6.2% gold
TLT -10.4% US Treasuries 20 year

SLV -14.1% silver
EEM -15.8% Emerging market equity

My account +6.2%. So respectable. It is telling that almost everything is down now. Only SPY has a reasonable return for the year. QQQ is not on the list, but is still up for the year.

I wish I knew what was coming next. The sentiment still doesn’t feel like a top, but corrections can happen at any time. This recent slide came on no real news. The reasons cited have been out there for months now. Netflix boomed higher on earnings day, and has given all that back. That is not bull market action, so caution is reasonable. That said, so many pundits and newbies seem obsessed with a crash, that a crash is extremely unlikely. What is more likely is the recent meat-grinder action where both bulls and bears might lose money, if they are positioned wrong.

Weekly: another frustrating week

Bulls and bears have things to be happy and sad about. A booming rally gives way to selling later in the week. Overall, the market moved higher, but coming off the big slide the prior week, it wasn’t as much as some had hoped. My week ends with frustration as my mental stop levels on Nvidia. I take more losses.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Markets fade into the close. A break even day for me.
Cover FB Oct26 175 c 05 for profit
Cover NVDA Nov2 300 c 04 for profit

Sell NVDA Oct26 265 c 44
Sell NVDA Oct26 270 c 38

Sell QQQ Oct26 182 c 25
Sell SPY Oct26 286 c 26

Tue The bull empire strikes back. A buying panic, with the market gaining strength all day long. I cover some calls, sell some puts. Take a small shot at Netflix pre-earnings. I am up about 3.7% today. Woohoo.

All these calls closed for profit:
Cover TSLA Nov 375 c 150
Cover SPY Nov 296 c 17

Cover AMZN Nov 2200 c 340
Cover SPY Oct26 288 c 19

Cover NVDA Oct26 270 c 28
Cover QQQ Nov 190 c 18

Cover FB Nov 190 c 30
Sell NVDA Oct26 210 p 51

Sell AMZN Oct 1650 p 80
Sell NFLX Nov 225 p 108

Sell TSLA Oct 245 p 31
Sell TSLA Oct26 230 p 93

Sell COST Nov 200 p 37
Sell AMZN Dec 1350 p 670

Sell IWM Dec 135 p 68
Sell QQQ Dec 148 p 89

Sell SPY Dec 240 p 129
Sell UNH Nov 240 p 57

Wed Roll NFLX for 123 credit: Cover NFLX Nov 225 p 32 profit
Sell NFLX Nov 290 p 155
Sell UNH Nov 290 c 18

Thu The bears get a day.
Cover AMZN Oct 1650 p 72 for profit
Cover AMZN Oct 2300 c 167 for profit
Cover AMZN Oct26 2050 c 310 for profit

Sell AMZN Dec 2500 c 153
Sell NFLX Nov 425 c 59

Sell NVDA Nov2 275 c 27
Sell IWM Dec 175 c 19

Sell SPY Dec 300 c 38
Sell QQQ Dec 193 c 39

Sell TLRY Nov 310 c 40
Sell GOOGL Nov 1300 c 150

Fri My stops get run on Nvidia.
Cover TSLA Oct26 350 c 05 profit
Cover NVDA Oct 230 p 218 loss
Cover NVDA Nov2 230 p 930 big loss

Sell NVDA Nov2 185 p 80
Sell PYPL Nov 70 p 22 earnings
Sell NFLX Nov2 390 c 34

Weekly: Hurricane damage

First of all, thoughts and prayers for all those that suffered during the massive hurricane. Those kind of life changing events make stock market gyrations seem small in comparison. That said, it was a market storm this week. By the close Thursday wiped away all my gains for 2018. I take the biggest dollar loss in one transaction, in quite some time covering some sold Amazon puts for a 1000% loss on a large dollar amount.

Choose whatever cliché or metaphor you want. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Picking up nickels in front of a steam roller, and getting flattened. Friday’s relief rally places me back in the plus column for 2018, but overall down about 5% for the week. I am sure a few accounts got blown up by the market action. On the Internet, it tends to be winners (and liars) that tell tales.

Here are the trades for a truly ugly week for my account (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Columbus Day means bond markets are closed.
Mon Sell ABMD Oct 500 c 60

Sell BRKB Nov 240 c 35
Sell FB Nov 190 c 53

Sell TSLA Nov 350 c 205
Sell AMZN Oct 2050 c 270

Tue Cover BABA Oct 172.5 c 05 for profit
Sell BABA Nov 185 c 39

Sell TGT Nov 75 p 19
Sell AMZN Nov 1400 p 414

Sell FB Nov 125 p 36
Sell LOW Nov 90 p 23

Wed A hard down day. I lose 8%+, one of the worst days of the year. One of the worst in a while. Most of the year’s gains are now gone. I am still up for 2018, but not by much. Three legs breach the mental stop levels of the option price, several more are threatened.

Cover PAYC Oct 130 p 360 big loss

Cover FB Oct 155 p 320 big loss

Cover FB Oct 177.5 c 05 small profit

Cover PYPL Oct 77.5 p 263 big loss

Cover AMZN Oct 2500 c 05 for profit

Cover GOOGL Oct 1250 c 20 for profit

Sell QQQ Oct 184 c 14

Sell SPY Oct 293 c 14

Sell TSLA Oct 310 c 63

Sell FB Oct26 175 c 22
Sell AMZN Nov 2300 c 440

Sell FB Nov2 185 c 39
Sell NVDA Nov2 300 c 36

Sell AMZN Oct26 2150 c 375
Sell PANW nov 250 c 41

Sell PYPL Nov 95 c 13
Sell SPY Nov 296 c 47

Sell AAPL Oct26 242.5 c 24
Sell QQQ Nov 190 c 30

Sell GOOGL Nov 1375 c 81
Sell AMZN Nov 2200 c 655

Thu I lose another 2.9%. I am now negative for 2018. I book many more losses. Schaeffer’s Research says 75% chance that the market rebounds. That leaves 25% chance for more downside. With naked puts, I can’t take that chance.

Cover GRUB Oct 115 p 400 for big loss
Cover SPY Oct12 275 p 228 for big loss
Cover IWM Oct 155 p 253 for big loss
Cover AMZN Oct26 2150 c 230 for small daytrade profit
Cover AMZN Oct 1750 p 6210 whopper loss

Sell SPY Oct26 288 c 34
Sell QQQ Nov 185 c 40

Sell NVDA Nov 275 c 40
Sell PAYC Nov 175 c 26

Sell BRKB Oct 220 c 25
Sell NVDA Oct 272.5 c 15

Sell IWM Nov 170 c 15
Sell AMZN Oct26 2050 c 525

Fri No trades. My account gains about 5.7% on this relief rally. Of course, I would have been better off closing some of the losers after the bounce. If I knew better, I’d do better. Hindsight is 20-20. Best to follow the plan in place during turbulent times. Rule #1 Live to trade another day. One way I do that is to take losses.