Saturday, July 16, 2022

Turtle mode, grade C

Stock market rallies off its lows. I muddle through. I did some back ratios as a protective measure. For example buy SPY 380 puts selling multiple 340 puts in ratio. For the most part it was a wash. My trading account down about 9.9% for the year, up slightly for the trading month. Self-grade C.

I am more of a slow moving turtle trader than a quick and nimble type. This market has been more suited for the nimble. I am more likely to be whipsawed than ride the ups and downs correctly.

Some etfs:

GLD gold -7.0%
SPY SP500 -18.9%

SLV silver -20.1%
EEM emerging mkt -20.9%
TLT US20 yr -21.6%

IWM Russell 2000 -22.2%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 -26.6%

Basically everything is in the toilet, except gold which is still down for the year but down less. Factor in the inflation and most investors are down quite a bit in terms of buying power. Again my trading account, down 9.9%.

Sometimes a person has to survive the storm and rebuild, rather than going out into the storm. Is the market storm over? No one knows. Be prepared for anything. This might be the start of a secular bear with markets making new lows for years on end. Young people have never seen this. The dips have been short and sharp and buy the dip has been a winning strategy since 2008.

Markets sometimes change. When they do, the winning strategies of the past may stop working. Where does that leave us? Again, be prepared for anything. The nimble have an advantage as the winds of change blow. The turtles can survive better and still be in the game, because guess wrong a few times and losses can spiral.

I’ll be traveling a bit. My trading activity is already subdued. Enjoy the summer.