Weekly: bounce back rally

Market rally, up about 3% for the week. I was caught net short on Monday, quickly reversing to net long. I end the week, up about 3% just like the market. One new long was selling puts on BURL Burlington Coat Factory. I added to longs in COST Costco, TGT Target, and some others. Retail is chock full of winners and losers. I will look at beaten down stocks such as M Macys in December when tax selling peaks.

Marketwatch.com has a feature article about September being the worst month. However, down 1 percent is the average loss, which is close to nothing. I deployed a bit of buying power this past week, but still have a healthy reserve. For SPY the main position is a ratio spread, long the atm calls, short multiples of the 10 delta otm calls. For the U.S. readers, have a nice long weekend. 

Weekly:Shelter from the storm

I keep taking losses or rolling down to reach my target deltas. I lose about 2.5% this week. It is a bumpy ride. Just when I thought it was safe to go back in the water, the Jaws shark music started up again. I had some small winners, post earnings in Target TGT, pre earnings in Nordstroms JWN. Positive news from Boeing BA, had me covering calls for big losses. Reduced my risk on AMZN, at a big cost.

Friday opened higher, then round 27 of tariff wars triggered a massive sell off. I took my lumps through out the day. Just before the close I bought puts on SPY and QQQ, near the worst possible levels. So I ended the day net short QQQ SPY. We will see what next week brings. Damned if I know.

Monthly: Going Down, Grade C

A tough month, most equity markets moved lower. Bonds rocketed higher. I ended with a modest loss of 2.7% or so for the month. Grade is a “gentleman’s C.” Not good, but respectable given the difficult markets. Most of my earnings plays did mediocre to poor. Deere came in okay, but so many others, such as AMZN DIS TSLA, were losers on earnings day. AMZN and TSLA remain my big winners for 2019. BA remains the worst loser. I had some small post earning positiongs in SHAK SHW CMG SWK.

For the week, a big 800 point Dow drop, was made better by an up Friday. I ended the week with a modest gain. On Friday, Deere earnings weren’t great, but the stock moved higher. 

This month saw big changes in the ETF standings for 2019. Bonds and gold move up. Small caps and emerging markets move down. SPY still holding a respectable +15.6% ytd, but down over 3% for the trading month. Same with my trading account, down 2.7% or so. 

2019 year to date (not including dividends)
TLT +20.3% US 20 year treasury bonds
QQQ +20.2% Nasdaq 100, tech dominated equities
GLD +17.8% godl

SPY +15.6 S&P500 US large cap stocks
IWM +11.0 Russell 2000, US small cap stocks

SLV +10.3% silver
EEM +1.2% emerging market equities

My account up 30% for 2019, so I am holding my own, even with the modest loss this trading month. I wish the way forward were clear, but it is cloudy. The bear case remains substantial, but the market remains relatively resilient. If the market was going to crash, this week had the ingredients for a crash. I regret mostly missing the huge move up in bonds and gold, but up 30% for 2019 is good, if not great.

Friday’s big rally has me net short on AMZN and SHOP. Most others I am neutral or net long still. I can and will adjust as needed. I am staying with what I see as a conservative course, with significant reserves.

Weekly: Wild week

It is a wild week in the markets. A manic Monday, timid Tuesday, wild Wednesday, torrid Thursday, capped by a fade on Friday. Major indices finish the week mildly lower. I eek out a small gain for week. 

This past week, Disney earnings were meh. I lose a modest amount. Some other pre or post earnings plays include SHAK SHOP SWK UBER. I take a loss on SWK Stanley Toolworks. UBER comes in with a mild disappointment, but I sold strangles far enough out of the money to profit.

It hasn’t been an easy market. I continue to be cautious. Next up is earnings for Deere, I am leaning bullish going into the event.

Weekly: Powell Trump punch

A one two punch sends markets lower. I have a bad week, losing more than 4%. I close some positions near the lows on Friday. It is painful, but it is what I do. I close and take losses to reduce my risk profile going forward. We will see what comes next.