A tough month, most equity markets moved lower. Bonds rocketed higher. I ended with a modest loss of 2.7% or so for the month. Grade is a “gentleman’s C.” Not good, but respectable given the difficult markets. Most of my earnings plays did mediocre to poor. Deere came in okay, but so many others, such as AMZN DIS TSLA, were losers on earnings day. AMZN and TSLA remain my big winners for 2019. BA remains the worst loser. I had some small post earning positiongs in SHAK SHW CMG SWK.
For the week, a big 800 point Dow drop, was made better by an up Friday. I ended the week with a modest gain. On Friday, Deere earnings weren’t great, but the stock moved higher.
This month saw big changes in the ETF standings for 2019. Bonds and gold move up. Small caps and emerging markets move down. SPY still holding a respectable +15.6% ytd, but down over 3% for the trading month. Same with my trading account, down 2.7% or so.
2019 year to date (not including dividends)
TLT +20.3% US 20 year treasury bonds
QQQ +20.2% Nasdaq 100, tech dominated equities
GLD +17.8% godl
SPY +15.6 S&P500 US large cap stocks
IWM +11.0 Russell 2000, US small cap stocks
SLV +10.3% silver
EEM +1.2% emerging market equities
My account up 30% for 2019, so I am holding my own, even with the modest loss this trading month. I wish the way forward were clear, but it is cloudy. The bear case remains substantial, but the market remains relatively resilient. If the market was going to crash, this week had the ingredients for a crash. I regret mostly missing the huge move up in bonds and gold, but up 30% for 2019 is good, if not great.
Friday’s big rally has me net short on AMZN and SHOP. Most others I am neutral or net long still. I can and will adjust as needed. I am staying with what I see as a conservative course, with significant reserves.
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