Stocks rally then dip, then recover. Bulls are still mostly in control, though there are pockets of weakness. My trading account is up 5.8% for calendar 2024. My one stupid mistake was selling calls on ARM. It is too volatile a stock for that. My position was complex, but I covered the long calls for a huge percentage loss.
Here are some ETFs 2024 calendar performance so far:
SPY
SP500 5.1%
QQQ
Nasdaq 100 5.1%
IWM
Russell 2000 0.5%
EEM
emerging mkt -0.3%
SLV
silver -1.9%
GLD
gold -2.5%
TLT
US20 yr -6.2%
My trading account up 5.8%. So despite the ARM loss, I am ahead of the major indices. I continue with the thesis that AI is a big deal. It will have a positive impact on the earnings of many companies.
I was tempted to use the title Tale of Two Cities, best of times, worst of times. McDonalds and Starbuck report that customers are starting to balk at the higher prices. Chipotle reports their customers have not flinched. SuperBowl tickets started at $8000 per ticket. Huge demand from San Francisco, and their many wealthy fans. Not many regular folks can afford $20k for a weekend in Vegas and the SuperBowl.
The wealth gap is an issue. At some point it becomes politically unstable, and revolution becomes much more likely. There is so much anger out there. I will spare you the soap box speech.
The big picture strategy remains, buy QQQ on major dips. Be on the watch for a 5% or 10% correction at any time. Enjoy the bull ride, but keep a healthy cash reserve to add more on dips. I am not a fan of protective puts. It is so hard to decide when to cash in the puts and go without protection. For retail traders, much easier to keep cash in reserve and buy the dip.
