Friday, July 28, 2017

Weekly: WTF week? AMD BA CAT FB MCD

WTF? Boeing had its biggest point move in stock history (public since 1972). I was on the wrong side of that, short strangles and took a huge loss on the call side. I rolled the calls, and that roll got destroyed the next day, as BA kept moving higher.

I rolled the dice on FB and came up snake eyes. I guessed wrong, and also mangled the execution. BA and FB may have to go on my nemisis stock list, stocks to avoid. I add new positions in ALGN AMD CAT MCD after earnings.

Just as I pivot to slightly more bullish, the market sells off sharply on Thursday. Like I said, WTF?

Here is the sad tale of the tape: (p = puts, c = calls, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close, there are a couple of long positions as part of ratio spreads, and one share purchase, number near end is price per contract).

Mon Sell TSLA JulW4 310 p 43
Sell NVDA JulW4 177.5 c 33

Sell IBB Aug 355 c 30Sell BRKB Sep 180 c 58

Roll COST down: Sell COST Aug 160 c 23
Cover COST Aug 185 c 02 for a 90% gain

FB bear backratio: Buy FB Aug 160 p 283
Sell 2x FB Aug 150 p 79 in ratio debit $125 per unit

Tue SPY backratio: Buy SPY Oct 240 p 246
Sell 2x SPY Oct 225 p 94 in ratio, $58 debit per spread

Sell MCD Aug 148 p 26 earnings
Sell CAT Aug 105 p 32 earnings

Sell SPG Sep 140 p 59

Wed Boeing gaps higher after earnings. I place a mid order when BA is around 228 to close my sold calls, but BA keeps moving higher. I cover with stock, as I pivot from short to long. However as the rally gains strength, I am near delta neutral at the close of 233+. You could say it was a bad day to be short Boeing as it had its largest point gain in company history (came public in 1972).

Buy BA shares 228.47 (equivalent to about a 1600% loss on the sold 220 calls)
Sell BA Aug 215 p 107

Sell BA Aug 237.5 c 93
Sell BA Sep 200 p 59

Sell BA JulW4 200 p 25

Sell QQQ Sep 130 p 37

CMG vertical credit spread, bear: Sell CMG Aug 385 c
Buy CMG Aug 400 c

Cover NFLX AugW1 160p 05

Sell-to-close SPY Sep 222 p 33 for a 75% loss on this leg

Thu Another painful day. BA keeps running, I rolled the dice on FB and came up craps, QQQ rally pushes past my stop. A trifecta of big losers.

Cover BA Aug 237.5 c 625 for 1200% loss
Cover QQQ Aug 145 c 213 for 400% loss

Sell-to-close FB Aug 160 p 41 for 75% loss
Looks like I was wrong about a market decline so I add delta
Sell SPY Sep 232 p 64

Just in time for a sharp sell-off. WTF?
Sell AMD Aug 17 c 12
Sell QQQ Sep 152 c 22

Sell NVDA AugW1 175 c 36
Sell BA Sep 260 c 55

Cover (buy-to-close) FB Aug 150 p 55% gain, but loss was more than debit on the spread.
It would have been difficult to mangle the Facebook trade any worse. Yikes. Thankfully the dollar loss is relatively small.

Fri Sell ALGN Aug 150 p 26

Sell TSLA strangle (before earnings):
Sell TSLA AugW1 275 p 57
Sell TSLA AugW1 400 c 43
a roll of the dice on Tesla before earnings, but the odds are in my favor

Saturday, July 22, 2017

Monthly: Meat Grinder market 60-11 Grade B-

The modest dip turned out to be a head fake. I sold a lot of calls on the dip and had to cover some of them for huge percentages losses. BA, NVDA, QQQ, ULTA were some of the problem stocks. The big picture is that I was up about 1.7% for the trading month, now up about 8.8% for 2017. Half a loaf is how I often describe these kinds of results. Makes sense for someone that is almost always hedging their bets. The calendar 2017 recap, ranking them best to worst:

EEM +24.6% emerging market equity
SPY +10.4% S&P 500, U.S. large cap

GLD +8.8% gold
IWM +5.7% Russell 2000, U.S. small cap

TLT +5.5% U.S. 20 year treasuries
SLV +3.2% silver

My account +8.8%, so I am in the game, but lagging buy and hold of SPY. There is approximately another +1% on SPY and TLT for dividends, I am just looking at raw numbers for the etfs. Biggest losers so far in 2017 include: ULTA, FL, AAPL. Biggest winners include NVDA (despite the huge losses), BRKB, SPG, NTES, UNH.

A few people on Reddit are citing some new Etrade TV ads as a sign of a market top. For those that haven’t seen them, there is one where a young kid buys a boat, and the tag line is don’t get mad, get even, get Etrade. As if the stock market is free money.

Certainly this is the kind of thing seen at market tops. However, by itself, it is not enough evidence for me. People I talk to, seem still skittish, still afraid of the market. Seems like a lot of people are preparing for the next bear market, when we haven’t even seen a decent correction in a long while. I am still guessing at a pull back in Sep/Oct, but it is just a guess.

Friday, July 21, 2017

Weekly: Lucky 11, new longs NFLX COF

Nasdaq finally declines on Friday, after ten straight up days. Straight line moves tend to be bad for premium sellers. I take some more losses: BA NVDA QQQ. All is not doom and gloom, because I am up for the week, the month. I'll post the monthly summary in a day or so. New longs include NFLX COF

Here are the trades (p = puts, c = calls, number near the end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Tue Cover NVDA Jul 165 c 345 for a 1000% loss
Sell NVDA JulW4 190 c 26

Sell NFLX AugW1 160 p 33 new long

Sell QQQ AugW1 135 p 18
Sell QQQ Aug 135 p 41

Wed More losses on sold calls, though there are some profits too
Cover BA Jul 210 c 115 for a 300% loss
Cover QQQ Jul 144 c 62 for a 250% loss

Cover COST Jul 175 c 01
Cover SPY Jul 212 p 01

Cover BA Jul 170 p 01

Roll BRKB for 58 credit: Cover BRKB Jul 170 c 142
Sell BRKB Sep 175 c 194

Sell BA AugW1 195 p 47

Thu Roll VRX: Cover VRX Jul 17.5 c 19 for a 50% lossSell VRX Aug 22 c 21

Sell TSLA strangle: Sell TSLA JulW4 295 p 88
Sell TSLA JulW4 360 c 41

Sell NVDA AugW1 148 p 42
Sell NVDA AugW1 182.5 c 62

Sell QQQ AugW2 136 p 25

Fri Cover IWM Jul 132 p 01
Sell COF Aug 80 p 22 earnings, new long

Saturday, July 15, 2017

Weekly: Both sides now

It was a good week for buy-and-hold, especially tech and defense stocks, not so good for strangle sellers. I get hit on both sides, taking big losses in BA, NVDA, ULTA. It could have been a lot worse. I started covering sold calls on NVDA at 155, it closed the week at 165. A 27 point move (about 20% on 138) in a short time period is going to cause problems for strangle sellers. The good news is a slight gain for the week, but I fall further behind the bogey of buy-and-hold on SPY.

Here are the trades (p = puts, c = calls, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close, number near the end is price per contract):

Mon Sell NVDA Jul 138 p 103
Sell NVDA JulW4 135 p 95

Roll BA: Cover BA Jul 175 p 05
Sell BA Aug 180 p 75
Sell BA Jul 195 p 29

Roll LMT 70: Cover LMT Jul 255 p 15
Sell LMT Aug 260 p

Roll TSLA 56: Cover TSLA Jul 400 c 09
Sell TSLA Jul 352.5 c

Roll ULTA : Cover ULTA Jul 290 c 20
Sell ULTA Jul 280 c

Roll IBB 140: Cover IBB Jul 287.5 p
Sell IBB Aug 285 p

Tue Ulta Beauty and NVDA move against me. They both cross the strike price, which is my mental stop level. I cover both for big losses.

Cover ULTA 260 p 810 for a 1100% loss
Cover NVDA JulW2 155 c 276 for a 500% loss

Sell BA Jul 197.5 p 31
Sell NVDA Jul 142 p 46

Wed Another frustrating day, as more stops get run. Percent loss is vs. premium collected.

Cover BA Jul 207.5 c 278 for a 600% loss
Cover SPY Jul 225 p 03 buying power move for 95% gain

Cover NVDA Jul 120 p 03 for 93% gain
Cover NVDA Jul 160 c 420 for a 500% loss

Sell BA Aug 185 p 68
Sell QQQ Aug 130 p 48

Sell NVDA Aug 120 p 70

Fri Sell QQQ Aug 132 p 30

Friday, July 07, 2017

Weekly: Fireworks

A wild week, but like most fireworks displays, it was mostly sound and light, not much lasting change. TSLA finally came back to earth. Unfortunately, strangle sellers can hit on both ends of big moves. The jury is still out on TSLA and many more positions, but it is uncomfortable. Some are saying the trends is now down in QQQ. Could be, but I need more evidence.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close, the number near the end is price per contract).

On Monday morning, I thought it would be quite holiday trade for the half day, but the fireworks started early. Big moves in BRKB, NVDA and others,
make for an active trading day.

Mon Sell IWM Aug 129 p 44
Sell NVDA Jul 160 c 68
Sell SPG Aug 145 p 64
Sell BRKB Aug 165 p 87
Cover ULTA Jul 330 c 05
Cover NVDA Jul 200 c 04

Sell NVDA Jul 165 c 33
Sell IBB Jul 287.5 p 76

Sell NVDA JulW2 155 c 44
Sell JPM Aug 82.5 p 25
Wed Roll TSLA: Cover TSLA Jul 450 c 04 for 87% profit
Sell TSLA Jul 400 c 27
Sell SPG Aug 175 c 42
Cover FDX Jul 170 p 02 for 92% profit

Cover ULTA Jul 315 c 05 for 90% profit

Thu Sell ULTA Jul 290 c 55

Cover QQQ Jul 146 c 01 for 95% profit
Thu Sell ULTA Jul 290 c 55

Saturday, July 01, 2017

Weekly: Rollercoaster

The market goes up, goes down. Sector rotate in and out of favor. I had computer troubles this week. Bought a new computer. Like moving, getting a new computer tends to mean a lot of unpleasant chores. I bought a Lenovo Flex. It isn't the latest and greatest, but my computer needs tend to modest. I also have an Ipad Air.

As for the market, I attended the Investor’s Business Weekly meetup (CANSLIM). The phrase “show me” market is a good description. One person said that the upcoming July earnings cycle could make or break many stocks, and the market as a whole.

I keep dancing, even though I still feel out of synch with the markets. Here are the trades (p = puts, c = calls, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close, number near the end if price per contract.

Mon Sell VRX Aug 12 p 22Sell SPG Aug 140 p 56

Tue Sell TSLA strangle: Sell TSLA Jul 295 p 61Sell TSLA Jul 450 c 35

Sell NVDA JulW2 167.5 c 57
Sell NVDA JunW5 157.5 c 18

Sell QQQ Aug 148 c 24
Sell SPY backratio: Sell 2x SPY Sep 217 p 84 each
Buy SPY Sep 222 p 113 each

Thu Sell NVDA Jul 162.5 cSell QQQ Jul 144 c 19

Sell QQQ Aug 145 c 55
Sell IWM Jul 145 c 25

Sell BA Jul 207.5 c 41

Fri Sell VRX Aug 13 p 31