Kids Rollercoaster Grade C

 The stock market year moves higher, then lower, then higher. Reminds me of a kids rollercoaster. The moves weren’t huge, but a few people go shaken out on the down move.

Here are some ETF year-to-date for 2025:

SLV silver 4.9%
GLD gold 2.9%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 2.1%
IWM Russell 2000 2.0%
SPY SP500 2.0%

EEM emerging mkt 0.6%
TLT US20 yr -0.2%

My trading account +1.6%, so I am lagging. Given my near standing start with heavy cash reserves, this is not a surprise. Self-grade is C. It’s okay to make below market returns, with below market risk. Most years this is expected. In 2024, I had a minor win over the market averages by being overweight in big cap tech.

It remains to be seen if the old leaders will continue, or will new leaders emerge, or perhaps the rollercoaster goes on for larger peaks and valleys. The four year presidential cycle, looks for a minor dip in February, and minor top in June. We will see if this kind of Farmer’s Almanac forecast is any where close.

Prayers for all those experiencing losses or difficulties from the devastating fires in Southern California.