The Nasdaq100 moves ahead, as most other sectors spin their wheels. I continue to have a lot of cash equivalents, but my equities lean towards tech, so I benefit from the rally. I am up a respectible 10.4% in my trading account for calendar 2023, about +2% for the trading month. A good month. Here are a few other etfs:
QQQ Nasdaq 100 26.4%
SPY SP500 9.5%
GLD
gold 8.3%
TLT
US20 yr 7.3%
EEM
emerging mkt 2.8%
IWM
Russell 2000 1.0%
SLV silver -0.7%
Again, my trading account +10.4%.
The mega cap tech names are leading. I have small to modest long positions
in: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, TSLA. QQQ and BRK/B are some
other longs. Not everything is going up. DIS has been and remains a
solid company, but a lousy stock. I have other stuff too, it's not all tech, but that's what is leading this rally. BRK/B has 30% of their money
in AAPL, so moves in sympathy.
Overall, I am cautiously
optimistic. The record cash levels in mutual funds, and overall sour
sentiment means that if a bull train starts to leave the station, a
lot of people will have to stampede to get on board. If someone is a
portfolio manager, getting left behind often means getting fired. I
don’t have that kind of pressure.
I am still keeping a
lot of dry powder in case there are further declines. As of now, it
looks like the October 2022 lows were a signficant low. It isn’t
all puppies and rainbows. Rising interest rates mean that cash is a
meaningful alternative. Some are saying we are in a secular bear
market for bonds. This eventually means double digit interest rates,
and likely a real bear market in stocks. When? That’s the question.
For now, I remain cautiously bullish and will act like the October
lows will hold.
