Correction territory, Grade C+

Both SPY and QQQ now down more than 10% from record highs, means we are in a market correction. We will see if the market goes to -20% for an official bear market. Lots of predictions, but of course no one knows for sure. I mostly do nothing, sell a few way out of the money calls. Add an odd share or two. Still keep a healthy cash reserve.

Here are a few ETFs year-to-date:

GLD gold 15.0%
SLV silver 14.0%

EEM emerging mkt 6.6%
TLT US20 yr 3.9%

SPY SP500 -3.8%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 -5.9%
IWM Russell 2000 -7.8%

My trading accout -1.3%, so better than the market indexes. This is expected for an account with large cash reserves.

Warren Buffett often talks about waiting for your pitch. In the stock market, a person can wait indefinitely. There are no called strikes. Yes, there may be missed opportunities. My only significant winning ticker in 2025 is BRKB. A few other odds and ends are slightly positive. NVDA, QQQ, AMZN lead the parade of losers.

Precious metals and foreign markets are doing well. I see these are more rotational plays than big secular moves. Staying close to shore, waiting for better sailing weather is my current course. If the indexes touch -20% off their highs, I may deploy some of the cash reserves. 

Good while it lasts Grade C

Record highs on Wednesday followed by a two day tumble to end the option cycle. I do okay, but am now lagging SPY for calendar 2025. 

Here are a few ETFs year to date for 2025:

GLD gold  11.8%
EEM emerging mkt 7.4%
SLV silver  4.9%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 2.9%
SPY SP500 2.4%

TLT US20 yr -0.8%
IWM Russell 2000 -1.4%

My account +2.1% so slightly behind. I remain overweight mega-cap tech, while maintaining a healthy reserve. So far, it hasn’t been that good. I haven’t taken advantage of the bull moves in GLD, EEM, SLV which are leading the pack so far.

Not much is compelling. WMT took a tumble after running higher. Same story in quite a few stocks. I devote much of my recent time to songwriting.

Off topic, I participate in February Album Writing Month. The music side of the blog has the five song EP and the B-side with nine other songs and song sketches.

Here is the music side of the blog:

https://sandtigerpiano.blogspot.com/

My Youttube Channel

https://www.youtube.com/@billchin-bw4zz

Kids Rollercoaster Grade C

 The stock market year moves higher, then lower, then higher. Reminds me of a kids rollercoaster. The moves weren’t huge, but a few people go shaken out on the down move.

Here are some ETF year-to-date for 2025:

SLV silver 4.9%
GLD gold 2.9%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 2.1%
IWM Russell 2000 2.0%
SPY SP500 2.0%

EEM emerging mkt 0.6%
TLT US20 yr -0.2%

My trading account +1.6%, so I am lagging. Given my near standing start with heavy cash reserves, this is not a surprise. Self-grade is C. It’s okay to make below market returns, with below market risk. Most years this is expected. In 2024, I had a minor win over the market averages by being overweight in big cap tech.

It remains to be seen if the old leaders will continue, or will new leaders emerge, or perhaps the rollercoaster goes on for larger peaks and valleys. The four year presidential cycle, looks for a minor dip in February, and minor top in June. We will see if this kind of Farmer’s Almanac forecast is any where close.

Prayers for all those experiencing losses or difficulties from the devastating fires in Southern California.