Preparing for the storm C

Market is at or near all time highs. I remain cautious, and nervous. The 7th year of decades sometimes has a rollercoaster ride. My wild guess odds are 25% chance of a 20% crash in 2027. That doesn’t mean down hard for the year. It could mean a big rally followed by a rapid descent. As always, predictions are for entertainment.

I spent less time and energy on the stock market this year than in the past. Time spent, doesn’t correlate with returns. My trading account is up about 11 percent for calendar 2026. SPY is up around 13%, QQQ about 21%. If I had doubled my time, my returns may or may not have been better.

I haven't done much right, but avoided being totally out, or mostly short. If someone told me I could lock in 11% for the year, I'd take it.  It is a cup half full view.

Mistakes include, a misguided foray into Goldman Sachs GS stock, after their earnings. Some of my significant equity positions in Berkshire BRKB and Amazon AMZN have underperformed. Two bright spots have been trading Micron MU options, mostly selling call spreads for premium, and being mostly long SPCX while selling premium. I’ve been burned on selling calls way out of the money and seeing big rallies.

So storm preparations include a significant cash reserve. I may add some layered put spreads for credit for additional crash protection in 2027. If the parabolic curve comes into play, almost no one will call that top with accuracy. There are always people beating the bear drum. Chicken Little is always with us.

Bumpy ride, lunch money trades, Grade C

SPY +6.7% ytd, QQQ +15.2%

My trading account +4.6%. Not good, but not a disaster. Several of my significant positions such as AMZN, BRKB, have underperformed. MSFT, META, aren’t doing well. I maintain a healthy cash reserve, so the less than market return might be as expected. Lower risk often translates to lower returns.

My options trading has mostly been selling delta adjusted calls. During the massive rally off the 2026 lows, I rolled up and out, taking a modest loss each time. I made some lunch money trading MU and SPCX options, one lots for tiny gains as compared to the portfolio, but there are no real trading highlights for 2026.

Some commentators are saying that AI is the biggest invention in our lifetimes. Bigger than the Internet, bigger than moon rockets. Some say bigger than the steam engine or electricity. On the other side Chicken Little is always with us. There was a recent best selling book about the coming stock market crash. The SPCX IPO is pointed to as a sign of a clear top. Certain stocks such as MU have already had impressive gains.

As always predictions are for entertainment. Ride is likely to be bumpy. General purpose robotics, and AI are going to revolutionize many industries. Old line companies such as CAT and GM are touting new efficiencies. I no longer believe that buy the dip is a safe strategy. If a person is already wealthy, it makes a lot of sense to take some off the table. Timing an ultimate top is a low percentage game. A few will be correct, but most that try will fail. I have never been a nimble trader so that game has little appeal to me. 

As an aside America is about to celebrate its 250th birthday. While the country has its flaws, we are extremely blessed to be Americans. This year, I’ve spent less time on the stock market and more with the Bible. Let me leave you with 

from Numbers 6:24-26

May the LORD bless you and protect you.
May the LORD smile on you and be gracious to you.
May the LORD show you his favor and give you his peace.

Market correction, bad news is bad news

SPY -7.0% ytd, QQQ -8.4 ytd, my account -5.0% ytd

Most major market averages are ten percent off their highs, making the market correction official. I haven’t done as much trading. AMZN, BRKB, META, MSFT are all losers for 2026. -10% from the highs is not enough for me to deploy cash reserves to buy. In my January update, I wrote that market is slightly over valued. It is more in line now, but there feels like more uncertainty now.

It is remarkable how much AI can already do, especially consumer level AI. It might be scary what high level super expensive AI is capable of, or maybe it isn’t much better. It does seem like China and Japan are ahead of the U.S. in robotics. Their societies, especially Japan, are more likely to turn over certain tasks to smart robots. Europe may become an economic backwater because they are less likely to embrace robots and AI. One historical comparison might be countries that built lots of railroads, and those that didn’t do much with that invention.

With every big invention there will be winners and losers. People might think it is easy to pick winners. Keep in mind the 1960s era movie The Graduate. The secret word is Plastics, the keystone to the future. Indeed, plastics became much more popular in the next 30 years. However, the big stock winners, mostly had little to do with making or selling plastic.

Already several of the big mega cap companies AMZN, BRKB, META, MSFT have seen their stocks under perform. It may be the beginning of a long period of that.

I am holding my own at -5% for the year. Large cash reserves and being cautious limits the downside (and upside). Sure, we would like all like to make money every month, but limiting downside during difficult markets is a big piece of the long term puzzle.

I still believe a crash is highly unlikely in 2026. Odds seem higher for late 2027.

Hiatus and Kyle Tucker, Sam Darnold and new priorities

 I have decided to take a break from blogging about my options trading. It has been way more than 10 years. Publicly posting my thoughts made me more accountable, less likely to do stupid things. During recent years my updates have been less detailed, perhaps less interesting. 

Anyway, Kyle Tucker is a baseball player recently signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers. His four year $240 million dollar contract is a metaphor for the current stock market. Tucker is a good player but that much money is not a good value. 

The stock market is slightly over valued. There are pockets of exuberance but overall I would estimate 10 percent over valued. I am long past the stage of all in, all cash, or all short. Almost no one can function that way for the long term. 

Sam Darnold is any case study. Darnold was a high draft pick that was considered a bust. He has rejuvenated his career with two solid seasons with two different teams  I remember selling Palantir at $9.  PLTR has gone up more than ten fold  Captain Obvious will say it is difficult to be right on every investment or trade, but it is one that got away.

Big big news in my personal life is I have joined a local Baptist church and am getting baptized. It is a good time to reset priorities. Active trading is less of a priority. I plan to post quarterly updates. Plans may change. Good luck and God speed to all. 

Grade C+/B- for 2025

I didn’t do much these last few weeks. The year end numbers are in:

SLV silver 144.7%
GLD gold 63.7%
EEM emerging mkt 30.8%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 20.2%
SPY SP500 16.4%
IWM Russell 2000 11.4%

TLT US20 yr -0.2%

My trading acount +14.6%, so slightly behind SPY. The sky rockets are in precious metals. Many overseas markets also did well. I have signficant positions in NVDA which out performed, AMZN and BRKB which lagged the overall market. I didn’t have any of the really hot stocks in any meaningful way. 

My biggest losers for 2025 include AMD and MSFT. Both ran to the upside while I was short calls. Minor dollar amounts, but staggering percentage losses. One of the few things I did correctly was to stay in NVDA. 

We’ve had three decent up years in a row. Average for a fourth year bull is +12%, so that would be my near random prediction. Markets are slightly overvalued. There certainly are some signs of froth. 

My over riding theme for 2026 is back to basics. When I think about option trading, selling covered calls at 20 delta, selling puts at 20 delta are a well worn path aka as the Wheel strategy. That’s the plan at the moment. Add shares on any dips of 10% or more. It would be great to see the future, but experience tells me that I rarely get that even partially right. So vanilla is the flavor at the moment. Back to basics.

There is chatter about bubbles and crashes. The popularity of that kind of talk, often means at least 20% more upside before the rug gets pulled. That said, external events can and will influence the markets. 

I rarely mention politics here. Trump has a few more months to do things. He is already positioning for the mid-term elections. Most likely result is grid lock after that, with a lame duck president.

Using AI for DFC, and ugly tape action, grade B-

The Thursday after NVDA reports earnings saw a big gap up, and a sharp reversal. If stocks can’t go up on good news, when can they go up? PLTR was another recent example with very good earnings, gap up open then a sharp decline.

AI does a decent job giving range of discounted cash flow DCF valuation. Used to be that it took a good deal of formal education, plus field training to get a half-decent DCF valuation estimate. For amateurs, this often involved guess work.

Like almost all AI results, be careful. Don’t ever go all in, based on any one indicator. During market crashes, DCF can be thrown out the window because underlying assumptions of future sales and earnings, can change radically if the broad economy is sinking.

Here are a few ETFs year-to-date:

SLV silver 72.0%
GLD gold 54.6%
EEM emerging mk 27.0%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 15.4%
SPY SP500 12.4%

IWM Russell2000 6.6%
TLT US20 yr 2.5%

My trading account +12.0%, so slightly behind SPY. Considering I have kept a large cash reserve all year, that’s an okay result.

Short term it will be difficult for the broad market and many leading stocks to make all time highs. META and TSLA have given up all their 2025 gains. AAPL, WMT are holding up well. 

There is chatter about a K-shaped economy. The top 10 or 20 percent are doing well, and still doing discretionary spending. The lowest 25 percent is struggling, if not sinking.

Personally, I have a lot to be grateful for. As investors we all have a lot to be thankful for. About 40% of working Americans have near zero savings, many have significant debt. So if you have any money to invest, you are likely in the upper half.  

Chicken Little, grade C

Markets edge higher. Subject line refers to a 60 minutes segment about a new book about the crash of 1929. The author says that we may see another crash soon. As a long time market participant, the more voices warning about a crash, the less likely it is. Let me add that corrections and even crashes are near inevitable. Timing the crash is a game best left to pundits and authors. It is a low percentage game.

As for the markets, here are some ETFs year to date:

SLV silver 78.5%
GLD gold 60.6%
EEM emerging mkt 29.6%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 18.1%
SPY SP500 13.2%
IWM Russell 2000 10.2%

TLT US20 yr 4.4%

My trading account is +12.0% so I am lagging SPY and QQQ. I am participating on the long side, but have some hedges plus a healthy position in BIL (T-bill etf). Also notable is the run away freight train in precious metals. I have a tiny core position in physical plus a few shares of a gold etf. This is more insurance than investment.

More on the odds of a crash. Chicken Little is always with us. Sometimes the voices are loud and they get TV time and write books. Sometimes they are more in the background, but there are always people calling for a crash. 

Maybe once every 20 years, the market experiences a sharp move down. Young participants have never experienced a secular bear market, that has lower lows and lower highs for a decade or more. The secular bear is also near inevitable, but very difficult to time.

Some very smart educated people have been beating the bear market drum for years. The so-called Buffett indicator, total US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) vs. market cap of the entire US stock market. One flaw in this indicator is that many companies are global. Tech titans, AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT, NVDA all have global reach. BRKB has held a huge cash position for several years.

On the bull side is the near unlimited growth that robotics and AI may provide. It may be as big an economic change as the railroad boom, or the widespread adoption of electricity. These big inventions led to entire new industries. Of course there is a dark side, there will be losers.

I always say predictions are for entertainment. That said, if I had to predict market top, I’d say it is 2027, and about 50% higher than today. By writing this down, it may remind me to get much more defensive if that scenario unfolds. The nature of markets is that tops form with a near maximum number of buyers, near minimum of sellers. In a theoretical system, market timing is almost a sure loser.

So what to do? Do what I’ve been doing mostly. Overweight mega cap tech with a healthy cash reserve. Perhaps take a few more shots on the speculative long side, looking for a 50% move higher from current levels.

Chasing the bull, grade C

The bull market steams ahead. I am now trailing both SPY and QQQ for 2025. Grade C. September is one of the weakest months of the year, so I hedged. This year, any out right bears got their heads handed to them, as stocks, and precious metals roared ahead.

Here are some ETFs year to date:

SLV silver 48.2%
GLD gold 40.1%
EEM emerging mkt 26.8%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 17.2%
SPY SP500 13.2%
IWM Russell 2000 10.0%

TLT US20 yr 1.9%

My trading account +11.9%. Now lagging both SPY and QQQ. This tends to be the expected result when holding large cash reserves.

Cash isn’t quite trash, but those that were cautious were left behind. What next? It is difficult to believe that the record bull run will continue. The old cliches, don’t fight the Fed, don’t fight the tape ring true. Certainly we are extended. However, AAII sentiment is neutral. Only in the last week or so have their members bowed to the bulls, but still slightly more lean bearish for the next six months.

So no major changes to my market view. Keep core positions along with a healthy cash reserve. Add on significant dips. Stay overweight tech for the invested money. One minor addition is a tiny position in ORCL.

During big up months, it would be nice to be nimble and ride the wave. With my long trading history, that rarely happens. Half a loaf it is. I am glad I am not a bear.

The Rising Tide, grade C+

The rising tide lifts all boats is a stock market saying. The bull keeps running. I remain cautiously bullish, now slightly behind SPY for calendar 2025.

Here are some ETFs year to date:

GLD gold 27.4%
SLV silver 24.2%
EEM emerging mkt 19.4%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 12.9%
SPY SP500 9.8%
IWM Russell 2000 2.8%

TLT US20 yr -1.1%

My trading account +9.7%. QQQ has leap frogged ahead. Precious metals and emerging markets are even further ahead. A market correction can happen at any time. Reddit sentiment has become more bullish, especially on NVDA. Nvidia reports Wed August 27th. I remain cautiously bullish. Some small fish are going big into calls. NVDA is already over $4 trillion in market cap. That’s more than all the public companies in Germany. Is Germany and rest of Europe doomed to be irrelevant going forward? I doubt that, but stranger things have happened.

As a hedge against a correction, I do a QQQ backratio put spread Dec 550/520. Buying one put at the 550 strike, selling two at 520. Max profit is a 11% correction at September expiration (577 current). If the market crashes, the backratio starts losing below 490. I can trade around the hedge.

Some other stock market cliches are don’t fight the Fed, don’t fight the tape, don’t chase. All of these apply to the current market. If there is a market correction, Fed easing becomes much more likely. The trend has been mostly up. Chasing the leaders can hazardous. Those buying out ot the money, NVDA calls with that stock at all time highs, and already number one in market cap, tends to be a low percentage game.

My biggest non-index holdings continue to be NVDA, BRKB, AMZN. I have tiny positions in some of the other mega cap tech names: AAPL, GOOG, META, TSLA. If anything I am more cautious than I have been, but still lean bullish. If and when the market corrects, buying the dip remains the plan.

More Bull, grade B-

The bull market roars ahead. Any pauses are minor as most indexes are at all time record highs. I haven’t done anything particularly clever this year, but am riding the tide higher.

Here are some ETFs year to date:

GLD gold 27.4%
SLV silver 24.2%
EEM emerging mkt 17.4%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 9.8%
SPY SP500 7.1%

IWM Russell 2000 0.6%
TLT US20 yr -2.4%

My account +7.5%. I’ll take it. I have an overweight position in NVDA. Without that I would be lagging behind. As is, I sold some calls and had to cover some for a loss as Nvidia kept moving higher. After a year of not doing much, the market cap leader is again leaving skeptics behind.

Some are making the analogy to the 2000 tech bubble. However, we might still be a year or more from the bubble top. Chatter about a bubble without chart action to back it up, is a remedy against the bubble. Because of the bear market in QQQ earlier this year (-20% from top), in my mind, that gave the market an innoculation of sorts from a crash at least for a year.

I do wish I were smarter, more clever, more nimble. This is mostly hindsight. I am riding the market higher with modest profits for the year. One reward is to buy a mid-price guitar, an Ibanez AAM300CE.

Here is a short video with me playing My Favorite Things:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/JftpqQ4RHMY 

Is the bull back? Early report

I’m traveling the next two weeks, so am posting an early report. Grade incomplete. May is banner month for the bulls. NVDA went from my biggest losing ticker for 2025 to the biggest winner. MSFT continues to be on the loser list because some calls I sold had to covered for a big loss on a gap up. NVDA's recent strength caused a smaller loss, covering sold calls.

One commentator from IBD on YouTube is super bullish. Take it with a grain of salt, of course, but the guy has 40 years in the market and sees a parallel to the 1998 Internet bull boom. That ended badly in 2000, but there were two years when fortunes were made.

The IBD methodology is CANSLIM, a momentum centered strategy that tries to ride big up moves. This home run mentality is something I am weak at.

I’ve have a position in NVDA shares. I started buying around 30, and it is now 140+. That’s one of the very few home runs I’ve had in non-index shares. With the benefit of hindsight, someone trading the ups and downs could have made much more than 4x, but for me, that’s a big hit.

Here is an ETF recap:

GLD gold 26.0%
SLV silver 24.2%

EEM emerging mkt 12.2%
SPY SP500 2.3%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 3.7%

TLT US20 yr -2.3%
IWM Russell 2000 -4.1%

My trading account +2.7% for calendar 2025. Not great, but I’ll take it. The sobering comparison is to T-bills which might be +1.7% with no work, no risk, no draw downs. I might a market chicken, but I am not in turtle mode.

I feel like I haven’t done much right in 2025. An analogy might a be a baseball pitcher that doesn’t have their best stuff that day, but does enough.

For those traveling, have a aafe and fun trip. Cheers.

Another V-shaped recovery, Grade C-

Stock market moves almost straight after a brief bear market. I feel like my trading is below average, because I am now slightly behind SPY and QQQ for 2025. Grade C-

I did some put debit spreads to hedge a bit. Both hedges expired worthless, costing me about 0.9% of the portfolio. MSFT rocketed higher on earnings and I covered some sold calls for a huge percentage loss. Those factors contribute to me now trailing the indexes.

It demonstrates why and how hedging is difficult. I paid 0.9% for a minor hedge for about two months, which basically turned into drag. Of course if I knew we would recover from the bear lows so quickly, I wouldn’t need to hedge. I can find some comfort in staying mostly long. Having the hedge gave me confidence to keep my other longs.

Here are a few ETFs year-to-date:

GLD gold 21.5%
SLV silver 11.3%
EEM emerging mkt 10.6%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 2.0%
SPY SP500 1.4%

TLT US20 yr -1.2%
IWM Russell 2000 -5.0%

My trading account up 1.1%, so I am slightly behind. I am going to be traveling next month, so trading may be limited. The market continues to be treacherous. United Healthcare was a super blue chip a couple months ago. UNH lost over half its value in a few months. That’s why diversification and risk management is vital for those with a decent account size.

Is it all puppies and rainbows now? Seems unlikely, but the 2025 lows are likely good support if we see another leg down. Still a lot of public chatter about risk in the market, and it is risky. This is not a low risk time to be all-in long. So my default is back to being net long, delta hedging.

Simplest example is to own 5 shares SPY, sell a 3 delta call. The tiny premium doesn’t cushion much downside, and if the market rips higher, some upside might be lost.

Not in Kansas anymore, Grade C+

The bear has appeared. Market feels different. The leaders of recent memory are faltering. Subject line refers to the movie, The Wizard of Oz, when Dorothy gets picked up by a tornado. When she gathers herself, Dorothy says “we’re not in Kansas anymore” because we are officially in bear market territory. 

The average duration for bear markets for the past 50 years, is nine months (bulls tend to last 18 months). So if we get an average bear market, it is October before the bull resumes. If this turns out to be Ursa Major, any rallies will be selling opportunities.

Long time readers know that I am a slow moving trader. The choppy market has been good to the quick and nimble. I have been doing a few trades, but mostly rearranging deck chairs (vs making major moves). Being a chicken has limited the losses, though I am still down 6.1% for the year.

Here are a few ETFs for comparison:

GLD gold 26.4%
SLV silver 13.7%

TLT US20 yr 0.2%
EEM EmergingMkt 0.2%

SPY SP500 -10.2%
QQQ Nasdaq100 -13.1%
IWM Russell2000 -15.6%

Again I am -6.1% for 2025, which isn't great, but better than buy and hold. I dodged a couple of bullets by being so cautious. What now? The SP500 heat map is a useful tool for potentially finding new leaders if and when the bull resumes. Obviously, it is just a tool. United Healthcare UNH was a 2025 leader until it reported disappointing earnings.

For those that would like a watch list: BRKB, CRWD, NFLX, MCK. Better is to go look at the heat map yourself and look at various time frames. Unfortunately, many of even the SP500 stocks have poor option liquidity, so shares might be the way to go.

I am still holding substantial share positions in AMZN, NVDA, QQQ, BRKB. Berkshire is the only winner so far. BRKB has a substantial cash position, large positions in various insurance companies, AAPL, and the railroad.

My plan coming into 2025 was to use some of my cash reserves to buy dips. However, the map looks different today. In January 2025, the Reddit option sub was full of people reporting aggressive monthly and yearly profits, full of confident bulls loaded up with leap calls on NVDA and similar. Captain Obvious will tell you anyone with leap calls on major tech stocks is down a huge percentage.

More recently on Reddit, there are many reports of catastrophic account losses. I have often warned about the financial Russian roulette that many aggressive option traders were playing. For some, there number came up. For those with substantial accounts (more than ten years worth of savings), it is difficult to overcome huge drawdowns.

Happy Easter to all who celebrate. Be thankful, be faithful. Bible verse Micah 6:5, Act justly, love mercy, and walk humbly with God.

Correction territory, Grade C+

Both SPY and QQQ now down more than 10% from record highs, means we are in a market correction. We will see if the market goes to -20% for an official bear market. Lots of predictions, but of course no one knows for sure. I mostly do nothing, sell a few way out of the money calls. Add an odd share or two. Still keep a healthy cash reserve.

Here are a few ETFs year-to-date:

GLD gold 15.0%
SLV silver 14.0%

EEM emerging mkt 6.6%
TLT US20 yr 3.9%

SPY SP500 -3.8%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 -5.9%
IWM Russell 2000 -7.8%

My trading accout -1.3%, so better than the market indexes. This is expected for an account with large cash reserves.

Warren Buffett often talks about waiting for your pitch. In the stock market, a person can wait indefinitely. There are no called strikes. Yes, there may be missed opportunities. My only significant winning ticker in 2025 is BRKB. A few other odds and ends are slightly positive. NVDA, QQQ, AMZN lead the parade of losers.

Precious metals and foreign markets are doing well. I see these are more rotational plays than big secular moves. Staying close to shore, waiting for better sailing weather is my current course. If the indexes touch -20% off their highs, I may deploy some of the cash reserves. 

Good while it lasts Grade C

Record highs on Wednesday followed by a two day tumble to end the option cycle. I do okay, but am now lagging SPY for calendar 2025. 

Here are a few ETFs year to date for 2025:

GLD gold  11.8%
EEM emerging mkt 7.4%
SLV silver  4.9%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 2.9%
SPY SP500 2.4%

TLT US20 yr -0.8%
IWM Russell 2000 -1.4%

My account +2.1% so slightly behind. I remain overweight mega-cap tech, while maintaining a healthy reserve. So far, it hasn’t been that good. I haven’t taken advantage of the bull moves in GLD, EEM, SLV which are leading the pack so far.

Not much is compelling. WMT took a tumble after running higher. Same story in quite a few stocks. I devote much of my recent time to songwriting.

Off topic, I participate in February Album Writing Month. The music side of the blog has the five song EP and the B-side with nine other songs and song sketches.

Here is the music side of the blog:

https://sandtigerpiano.blogspot.com/

My Youttube Channel

https://www.youtube.com/@billchin-bw4zz

Kids Rollercoaster Grade C

 The stock market year moves higher, then lower, then higher. Reminds me of a kids rollercoaster. The moves weren’t huge, but a few people go shaken out on the down move.

Here are some ETF year-to-date for 2025:

SLV silver 4.9%
GLD gold 2.9%

QQQ Nasdaq 100 2.1%
IWM Russell 2000 2.0%
SPY SP500 2.0%

EEM emerging mkt 0.6%
TLT US20 yr -0.2%

My trading account +1.6%, so I am lagging. Given my near standing start with heavy cash reserves, this is not a surprise. Self-grade is C. It’s okay to make below market returns, with below market risk. Most years this is expected. In 2024, I had a minor win over the market averages by being overweight in big cap tech.

It remains to be seen if the old leaders will continue, or will new leaders emerge, or perhaps the rollercoaster goes on for larger peaks and valleys. The four year presidential cycle, looks for a minor dip in February, and minor top in June. We will see if this kind of Farmer’s Almanac forecast is any where close.

Prayers for all those experiencing losses or difficulties from the devastating fires in Southern California.

Year in review Grade B, and the Buffett indicator

 Time for a year end wrap up. It was a bull year for sure, despite a little weakness here near the end.

Here are a few ETFs for 2024, not factoring in dividends:

26.7% GLD gold
24.8% QQQ Nasdaq 100

23.3% SPY S&P500
20.9% SLV silver

10.1% IWM Russell 2000
4.0% EEM emerging mkt

-11.7% TLT US20 yr

My trading account +25.2%. A solid B grade. I have significant positions in NVDA, BRK.B, AMZN, SPY and QQQ. A do have a few scattered shares in quite a few other stocks. Only losing ticker symbols for the year are TM Toyota, and TLT 20 year treasuries. Big winners in the stocks listed up front, NVDA, BRK.B, AMZN, SPY, QQQ.

I had a couple of big percentage winners on vertical call debit spreads on NVDA. Mostly, it was small potato, selling of puts and calls way out of the money. A couple of rallies were strong enough for me to roll the calls up and out.

Didn’t do anything brilliant. Last year I sold my few shares of PLTR Palintir, never bought back in. I sold my few shares in TSLA near the 52 week lows, but did buy back in.

Predictions are for entertainment, my prediction is +6% for SPY in 2025. There will be trading swings, but I don’t expect anything overly dramatic. If we get 10% off the highs, I will add longs, and add more if we touch -20% (which I don’t think we will see). On the up side, if we get to +20% for the year at any point, I may reduce positions and/or sell higher delta calls than I usually might.

Worth mentioning is the the US GDP vs total market cap indicator, sometimes called the Buffett indicator. What this doesn’t factor in, is how global many companies are now in terms of sales and profits. Anyway, the Buffett indicator is on a sell signal, with stock market valuations way out pacing GDP growth.

It’s been a good year for bulls. I hope it’s been good for you. If not, like the NY Mets baseball team, wait until next year. Cheers.

Election party, then hangover, grade B-

Stocks boom higher on election news, then give half of that back during the next week. I haven’t been doing much trading.

Here are some ETFs year-to date:

SLV silver 40.7%
GLD gold 23.8%

SPY SP500 23.2%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 21.3%
IWM Russell 2000 13.8%

EEM emerging mkt 6.8%
TLT US20 yr -8.9%

My trading account up around 25% for calendar 2024. I’ll take it. I am busier until Christmas, so will have less time for trading. Overall plan remains, add to longs on significant dips, keep a healthy cash reserve.

This is the month of Thanksgiving. I am grateful for all my blessings, especially my friends and family, and our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.

Off topic: One new thing for me is learning guitar, I’ll post my first Christian song on YouTube. Link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJZ29LAC1ms

Bulling ahead, Grade B-

The bull continues to plow ahead. I only make minor moves, and give myself a B- grade for the trading month. Sometimes doing nothing or very little is a productive way to proceed. I continue to be overweight large cap tech, along with a large cash reserve.

Here are some ETFs year-to-date:

SLV silver 40.7%
GLD gold 31.4%

SPY SP500         23.0%
QQQ Nasdaq 100         20.7%
EEM emerging mkt 14.2%
IWM Russell 2000 12.4%

TLT US20 yr -5.1%

My trading account +23.8%, so about even with SPY. I see this is a good result because I keep a large cash reserve.

Without too much fanfare, Silver is now leading the way in calendar 2024. Back in day, I established a modest emergency reserve in precious metals. Even the not so smart purchases at prior highs of around $35 an ounce are now profitable. Captain Obvious will tell the metals people that SPY and QQQ have done much better over the last 10 years.

For people with significant wealth a modest position in physical gold and silver is a prudent move. Even 2% can provide a significant buffer against some unthinkable scenarios. A week’s worth or water, food, meds is another common sense precaution that costs near nothing. With widespread flooding from recent storms, it is hard to evacuate with much more than that.

I will have less time for trading between now and Christmas. I like to have a month of almost no activity, so I can come back to the market with fresh eyes. I keep my core stocks and etfs. Overall strategy remains the same, overweight big cap tech, add on signficant dips.

The Impossible Dream. grade B-

Back in the day, the song Impossible Dream from Man of LaMancha, was popular. This comes to mind with the gyrations of the market. Some imagine how much money they could make if they could time, those highs and lows, even in one stock, much less the market. For almost all of us, this is an impossible dream. Any way to phrase it:

Perfection is a hope a dream, an illusion.

Those that buy lows tend not to be those that sell highs. Investing legend Warren Buffett, says he never met a successful long term market timer. Of course some make great short term calls, and may get it right over a short time period. Over the long term, the market is always evolving. Indicators that work during one period, may fail spectacularly as the market shifts. 

Those with big money that try to time the stock market tend to also trade bonds, currencies, commodities and make the bulk of their money outside of the stock market. 

Here are some ETFs year-to-date:

SLV silver 30.4%
GLD gold 26.7

QQQ Nasdaq 100 17.8%
SPY SP500 16.6%

IWM Russell 2000 10.5%
EEM emerging mkt 8.7%
TLT US20 yr 0.0%

My trading account +19.4, so ahead of SPY. Grade for the month is B-. I remain over weight big cap tech with medium sized positions in AMZN and NVDA. Another significant holding is shares of BRKB.

The NFL football season has started. Over reaction to one good or bad game is common, early in the season. Hard to discern whether some teams have real strengths or weaknesses, that become apparent over the course of the year. The analogy to the stock market is the desire to over react to one news event, or one bad day or week.

The pipe dream of being able to time highs and lows doesn’t go away. However, realism from so many years of trading sets in. I am who I am. Just getting there for me, was a long journey, because the psychology of trading was a big topic for me. Almost everyone has some emotional attachment to money. May five percent can be near emotionless from the start. For maybe 10 percent, the emotional issues are front and center.

The big picture plan remains in place. Buy signficant dips, over weight big cap tech. Some trimming along the edges might be done. Good luck to all.