Wrong!

It never feels good to be on the wrong side of the market when news comes out. Being short SPY on this rally Friday is not a good feeling. Yes, the long puts are for May, so there is a lot of time, but a 35% haircut on the value of the position in a few days is not a lot of fun. Being long TLT was no picnic today either, as better than expected employment news often means bonds going down, yields going up.

As I have written before, be wary of any short term traders that claim 100% track records. Most likely they aren't trading real money in real time. More likely they are posting only winners in hindsight, or worse--have horrendous drawdowns that no live trader could withstand.

With infinite paper money, a paper trader can double down and keep doubling until the tide turns. In real life that kind of doubling is a recipe for losing everything. As I stated from the beginning of the blog (now more than three years), survival, living to see another day is priority one.

Long GLD, TLT
net short SPY