Wow
what a week. The sky seemed to fall. Stock markets all around the
world, mostly moved lower. I took it on the chin, taking some big
whopper losses. I was a bit too aggressive, opening up new long
positions and that added to the damage. For the week my trading
account is down about 3% in round numbers. Any way you slice it,
that's a log of damage.
I
attended the local Canslim/IBD sponsored meetup on Thursday. The mood
seemed a bit too upbeat, so more downside action might be on its way.
A couple of nuggets are that corrections typical last 2 to 3 months.
Say we started it on 12/28 or so that would mean March 15th as a time
frame for the correction to end. If this is a bear market, 9 months
is average.
However,
the caveat is that we had an extraordinarily long bull market, so
both the correction or bear may also be prolonged. I am following my
trading rules, and taking losses as they come.
I
made a lot of trades this week, a lot of bad ones, maybe two or three
that were okay. Here they are: (c = calls, p = puts, sell means
sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close, all are third week
expiration.
Mon 1/4/2016: My response to the steep sell off is rebalancing. All of the calls I sold this morning are balanced off by previously sold puts. I plan to hit eject if my stop loss levels are breached, up or down. The stop is usually the strike price of the sold option.
Sell DIS Feb 115 c 64
Sell
IWM Feb 119 c 33
Sell
BA Feb 155 c 43
Sell
FB Feb 120 c 45
Sell
MCD Jan 122 c 18
Sell
SPY backratio: buy SPY Feb 182 p 141
sell
2x SPY Feb 177 p 97 gross credit 53 per unit
This
put backratio is a net bullish position with an explosive profit if
the underlying is near the lower strike at expiration. In this case
another 180 is about another 10% down for SPY and would give a very
high profit. An up move or sideways means I keep the credit. In a
full on crash the position losses a ton of money.
Sell
AMZN Jan 710 c 51
Tue
Sell DIS Feb 115 c 44
Sell
DIS Jan 108 c 19 rebalance as Disney continues to drift lower. I sold
Jan 100 puts and it is getting close to bail out time on that leg. On
a close below 100, I hit eject.
Sell
TSO Feb 82.5 p 66
Wed
Sell BA Feb 150 c 73
Sell
DIS Jan 108 c 17
Cover
DIS Jan 100 p 175 for about a 350% loss on this leg. I cover a bit
early with DIS still above 100, but it looks like a dying quail at
this point. I also am short some Jan 97.5 puts and a bunch of other
options.
Sell
CMG Jan 480 c 65 Chipotle down hard again. I rebalance my position by
selling another leg of calls.
Cover
CMG Jan 600 c 05 I cover this leg for no commission at 95% profit
Sell
CMG Feb 550 c 179 I go naked on this leg. The news seems more
serious, so buying the dips like I have been doing, seems like a
really bad idea right now.
Later
in the day:
Sell
CMG Feb 300 p 210 strong bid on this strike, and stock seems to have
found some support, at least for the day.
Sell
AAPL strangles slight bearish bias:
Sell
AAPL Feb 75 p 26
Sell
AAPL Feb 120 c 30
I
do another SPY backratio. This one brackets a 13% to 18% SPY decline
into March.
Sell
SPY backratio:
Buy
SPY 172 c 132 gross credit 32 per unit
Sell
2x SPY 165 p 85
Buy
SPY vertical put spread, a tiny bit of protection though it has a cost.
Buy
SPY Apr 190 p 535 gross 183
Sell
SPY Apr 182 p 352
Sell
IWM Feb 117 c 27 Rebalance
Thu
Sell COST Feb 170 c 29
Sell
BA Jan 144 c 20
Cover
BA Jan 135 p 315 for a 1300% loss
Sell
DIS Feb 80 p 24
Sell
AAPL Jan 105 c 22
Sell
TSO Feb 130 c 51
Sell
ALK Feb 85 c 50
Cover
AMZN 555 p 194 for a 30% profit
Another
day in the woodshed, with more red ink. My consolation prize is that
my losses are not as big as some other investors.
Fri
New strangle position in Valero Energy, perhaps the worst entry of a very bad week. Yikes.
Sell
VLO Mar 57.5 p 92
Sell
VLO Mar 85 c 43
Sell
AMZN Jan 537.5 p 42
I
got scared on Thursday and covered the AMZN 555's. I am getting a
crumb by selling these lower priced options further out.
Cover
ALK Jan 72.5 p 215 for about a 1500% loss. A big whopper loss to close out a terrible week. Monday may bring more covering for whopper losses. I will continue to follow my mechanical rules. As painful as it is to take a big loss, much more painful is letting losses go exponential and perhaps threaten the entire account.
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