Monthly: Better and better, 65 - 5 grade A-

I count 65 winners, 5 loser for the September option cycle for my most profitable month of 2017. I am up about 2.9% for the month, up about 11.6% for 2017. Sure 11% isn’t all that when compared to the the trading unicorns and the YOLO crowd. However, for a relatively slow moving trader that is almost always hedged trader, I see it is as good news.

Here are a few etfs I track, best to worst:
EEM +30.2% emerging markets equity
GLD +14.5% gold

SPY +11.5% S&P 500, U.S. large cap
SLV +10.0% silver

TLT +6.5% 20-year Treasury bonds
IWM +5.6% Russell 2000, U.S. small cap

My trading account is right there with SPY with a gain of 11.6%.

SPY also gets an additional 1.5% in dividends (13% total return), so I am behind. That said, I feel like I am positioned at lower risk than buy-and-hold. A simliar return with what seems like less risk is a good thing. I managed profits, even though I felt like the market was due for a 5% drop in September. I did take some precautions, but didn’t let my bias get totally in the way of more profits. Like I said, this option cycle was my most profitable of the year.

I like to use the phrase, “listen to the markets.” Observe how the market responds to various event. Observe the stock market chatter online and in person. With so a lot of chatter about a sharp correction or crash, these events become less likely. Crashes tend to be rare events. Way too many newbies think crashes happen every year or two. Severe crashes are more like once every 20 to 30 years, so the time frame might be out to 2028 or later.

I plan to continue to listen going forward.While the major indexes have had a good year, there certainly have been sectors such as oil, retail, and most recently airlines that have way underperformed. Some stubborn investors have gone heavy into these laggards, and many have underperformed. There can be merit to investing in beaten down sectors. However, there is also the value trap. Investing in what seem like good values, without factoring in the secular decline in those businesses.