Weekly: bull is wounded but not dead

All of my 2018 gains evaporate as the market careens lower. I lose about 2.5% for the week, am now down about -0.5% for 2018.

I have often described as the bull as zombie lurching forward, seemingly impervious to slings and arrows. The bull accelerated in January and is now hurt and stumbling. Is this the end? If this were a movie, monster movies rarely end on the first damage to the monster. That is often just the first act. I believe this zombie bull will be similar, that it will get a second wind, a third wind. New highs? I think more likely, is a period of three to six months of side ways action.

Some might say the market declines like this happen once in a blue moon. Well, we had a blue moon on Jan 31. The DJIA falls an eerie 666 points. The bear market low on SPY was also 666 in 2009.

For most of the week, I stumble around. I am staggered by WYNN on Monday and then UNH, a bit dumb founded by the market action and a bad turn of luck. I close one leg for a loss on WYNN. UNH gets hit, but I am not stopped out yet. Most of what I did, didn’t seem to work. I made a lot of trades, but mostly just got a bigger hole. The activity didn’t translate into progress.

Here are the trades (p=puts, c=calls, number near end is price per contract, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close):

Mon Wynn continues lower, I close one leg for a huge loss
Cover WYNN Feb 170 p 780 for 2500% loss
Sell WYNN Feb 200 c 41
Sell WYNN Mar 210 c 80
Sell WYNN Feb 125 p 25

Sell NFLX Feb 220 29
Sell NFLX Feb 360 c 28
Sell NFLX Feb 230 p 43

Sell UNH Mar 230 p 135
Sell LMT Feb 325 p 100

Sell MCD Feb 160 p 20
Sell CAT Feb 180 c 60

Sell GS Feb 255 p 80

Tue Sell MCD Feb 185 c 20
Sell UNH Feb 252.5 c 66

Wed Boeing up on earnings.
Sell BA Mar 300 p 81
Sell BA Feb 315 p 48

Sell IBB Mar 105 p 65
Sell IBB Mar 130 c 15

Sell SPY Feb 292 c 20
Sell SPY Mar 300 c 21

Sell ATVI Feb 62.5 p 21
Sell TSLA Feb 290 p 107

Sell MMM Feb 270 c 16
Sell GS Feb 300 c 20

Sell AAPL strangle: Sell AAPL Feb 195 c 23
Sell AAPL Feb 150 p 69

Thu Sell UNH Mar 260 c 85
Sell SPG Mar 175 c 30

Sell BA Mar 290 p 48
Sell WYNN Mar 130 p 67

Sell SPY Apr 307 c 16

Fri Markets swoon, with major averages falling 1.5 to 2.5% by the close. I take on water, but haven’t been stopped out yet. I make a bunch of trades, selling lots of out of the money calls.

Sell AAPL Feb 180 c 18
Sell UNH Feb 245 c 92

Sell BABA Feb 210 c 47

Roll BRKB for 170 credit Cover BRKB Feb 200 c 1462 for loss
Sell BRKB Mar 200 c 1632

Sell SPY Feb 289 c 14
Sell TLSA Feb 425 c 22

Sell IWM Mar 168 c 15
Sell IBB Feb 120 c 15

Sell BRKB Mar 240 c 47
Sell BABA Feb 165 p 17

Sell GS Feb 290 c 22
Sell CAT Feb 175 c 17

Sell QQQ Mar 180 c 15
Sell BRKB Feb 222.5 c 34

Sell BA Mar 420 c 41
Sell SPY Feb 287 c 16

Sell SPY Feb 286 c 25
Sell BABA Feb 207.5 c 54