Another dip grade C

Most major US stock indices make new lows for 2022. There was a relief rally this past week, but the year-to-date percentages are ugly. My self grade for the trading month is C.

GLD gold -9.8%
SLV silver -17.4%

SPY SP500 -21.2%
IWM Russell 2000 -22.4%

EEM emerging mkt -27.8%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 -30.8%
TLT US20 yr -37.1%

My trading account down about 12% for calendar 2022. That’s bad, but looking at the etfs numbers above, not bad in comparison.

If someone asks, I say I am about 50% invested, so about half the losses in SPY/QQQ is where I might expect to be. I plan to shut down for the month leading up to December expiration, so the -12% is going to be close to a year end number for me.

The back breakers for many are the -30 and -37 for Nasdaq100 and 20 year Treasuries. The conservative 60/40 or 40/60 stock/bond portfolios have had a terrible year. The tailwind of a secular bull market in bonds has turned into a storm, wrecking many.

My market timing remains mediocre at best. For the nimble and correct, there have been some opportunities. However, my long history shows that I am neither, and most of the time I won’t try to time the short term moves.

As always, I try to remain grateful, to do what I can, to understand the probable vs the possible. Thanks for reading.