The bull market steams ahead. I am now trailing both SPY and QQQ for 2025. Grade C. September is one of the weakest months of the year, so I hedged. This year, any out right bears got their heads handed to them, as stocks, and precious metals roared ahead.
Here are some ETFs year to date:
SLV silver 48.2%
GLD gold 40.1%
EEM emerging mkt 26.8%
QQQ Nasdaq 100 17.2%
SPY SP500 13.2%
IWM Russell 2000 10.0%
TLT US20 yr 1.9%
My trading account +11.9%. Now lagging both SPY and QQQ. This tends to be the expected result when holding large cash reserves.
Cash isn’t quite trash, but those that were cautious were left behind. What next? It is difficult to believe that the record bull run will continue. The old cliches, don’t fight the Fed, don’t fight the tape ring true. Certainly we are extended. However, AAII sentiment is neutral. Only in the last week or so have their members bowed to the bulls, but still slightly more lean bearish for the next six months.
So no major changes to my market view. Keep core positions along with a healthy cash reserve. Add on significant dips. Stay overweight tech for the invested money. One minor addition is a tiny position in ORCL.
During big up months, it would be nice to be nimble and ride the wave. With my long trading history, that rarely happens. Half a loaf it is. I am glad I am not a bear.
