Time
for a year end wrap up. It was a bull year for sure, despite a little
weakness here near the end.
Here
are a few ETFs for 2024, not factoring in dividends:
26.7%
GLD gold
24.8%
QQQ Nasdaq 100
23.3%
SPY S&P500
20.9%
SLV silver
10.1%
IWM Russell 2000
4.0%
EEM emerging mkt
-11.7%
TLT US20 yr
My
trading account +25.2%. A solid B grade. I have significant positions
in NVDA, BRK.B, AMZN, SPY and QQQ. A do have a few scattered shares
in quite a few other stocks. Only losing ticker symbols for the year
are TM Toyota, and TLT 20 year treasuries. Big winners in the stocks
listed up front, NVDA, BRK.B, AMZN, SPY, QQQ.
I
had a couple of big percentage winners on vertical call debit spreads
on NVDA. Mostly, it was small potato, selling of puts and calls way
out of the money. A couple of rallies were strong enough for me to
roll the calls up and out.
Didn’t
do anything brilliant. Last year I sold my few shares of PLTR
Palintir, never bought back in. I sold my few shares in TSLA near the
52 week lows, but did buy back in.
Predictions
are for entertainment, my prediction is +6% for SPY in 2025. There
will be trading swings, but I don’t expect anything overly
dramatic. If we get 10% off the highs, I will add longs, and add more
if we touch -20% (which I don’t think we will see). On the up side,
if we get to +20% for the year at any point, I may reduce positions
and/or sell higher delta calls than I usually might.
Worth
mentioning is the the US GDP vs total market cap indicator, sometimes
called the Buffett indicator. What this doesn’t factor in, is how
global many companies are now in terms of sales and profits. Anyway, the Buffett indicator is on a sell signal, with stock market valuations way out pacing GDP growth.
It’s
been a good year for bulls. I hope it’s been good for you. If not,
like the NY Mets baseball team, wait until next year. Cheers.