Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Take your CAKE, churning GLD

CAKE Cheesecake Factory down on lower guidance. The stock remains richly valued given the modest growth prospects. Tough to short or to buy puts when a stock has been sliding down then gaps lower (chart). CAKE does look like it will go lower before finding a bottom, however, today is a high risk entry point for both longs and shorts.

Most of the market is waiting for the smoke to clear from the Fed announcement tomorrow. Often times the initial reaction to Fed meetings is a head fake. I still have some cash looking for good longs.

I haven't written much about gold, silver and copper. Gold seems to be churning to try and form a bottom. I think there is still a lot of speculative excess in the metals and the market churns to frustrate both bulls and bears. So while I have taken a look at a few gold stocks, I am not close to pulling the trigger (chart). Again, this does not look like a low risk entry point.

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