Saturday, November 04, 2006

A study on the buy/write strategy

A study by Callan Associates examines the buy/write strategy, link to PDF (need Acrobat reader).

I'll cut to the chase, the bottom line is that the basic buy/write strategy, for the study period of 1988 to present has equaled the returns of the SP500 with much less volatility. The confirms my basic belief that buy/write offers market returns with less risk.

Of course during market advances, buy/write will underperform. During flat periods and down markets, buy/writes will outperform. In down markets, yes, buy/writers will take their lumps, but if a trader continually updates their hedge, about half the loss can be mitigated. During trendless flat periods, buy/writes are one of the best performing strategies.

As for the market, I have been looking for an election related sell off. I remain almost all in cash, with two hedged positions in DVN and EWJ. I have had little time for patient market analysis, so the cliche is when in doubt, get out.

The four year cycle presidential stock market cycle points up from here. However, like I said, in my opinion, cycle work is one of the least dependable indicators. Especially when the cycle is widely known, and widely quoted like the four-year presidential cycle.

Cheers.

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