Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Market churns lower

Monday's reversal from a 134 point Dow gain, used up quite a bit of dry powder for short term traders. Today's smaller reversal is making folks ever more cynical of any rallies. For the most part, the retreat looks orderly. Seasonally, the summer is the weakest of the four seasons. I expect more bear market days ahead, though I doubt it will be a straight drive down.

LEN Lennar's earnings report shows that bottom is no where in sight for the housing market. Most home price declines have been modest, in the 2% to 3% year over year price declines. That won't scare anyone into selling. A few regional markets are worse, some are better.

Silver craters down 59 cents to $12.20. I think it is too early to look to be aggressive on the long side. Those thinking long term can continue to accumulate and build a long term position of about 3% in gold and silver.

My sole position is TXN hedged long.

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