The red line (200 day moving average)

The SP500 closes under its 200 day moving average (red line on chart). Some folks including Random Roger (blog) use this for long term timing. Over the long term this indicator has been one of the best. Sure there have been false signals, and periods where it didn't work. It is so simple, that many folks pooh-pooh it. As Marty Zweig used to put it: the trend is your friend, and with today's action, some would say the long term trend is now officially down.