Strength in TLT a bond ETF (chart) makes me lean towards a higher stock market. The bond market often leads the stock market. The trading calendar also favors higher prices into January.
Gold makes big news closing above $800. Most of the rally has been dollar driven (chart). Oil has performed better since the Fed went to rate cutting than gold has (USO vs GLD one year chart). Those looking for a top in gold would do well to keep a close eye on the dollar. I am of the opinion that the gold bull can not over come US dollar strength. Again, for the average person, 2% to 3% in physical gold or similar hard assets is what I suggest as insurance against certain financial scenarios. Folks that want a higher percentage best know what they are doing and do their own due diligence [research].
As always, calling tops and bottoms can be entertaining, but rarely profitable. V-shaped reversals do occur, however, they are not common and when they do occur, they can be difficult to trade. Not many people can get in or out at the point of a V.
MRK, HD or LOW are more stocks that look like interesting longs (WAG, SBUX, NYT, T are some others).
Positions: GM hedged long (short puts expire in November)
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