Long time bull Dan Sullivan, writer of the top rated newsletter, The Chartist, turns bearish (article). Sullivan takes the extraordinary step of going to 100% cash. For those that don't know Sullivan, he has been around for a long time, successful for a long time (ranked 4th for the past 25 years) and most of the time is long on margin. For someone with Sullivan's track record, who often is 150% invested, the 100% cash position is something to sit up and take notice of.
Elsewhere, Random Roger (blog) adds what seems like a throwaway comment, but I find it interesting (Thursday Jan 17 entry):
At SPX 1351 we are down 13.6% from the closing high in October. If a normal bear market bottom is down 25-30% we are about half way there in magnitude but I would be surprised if we are halfway there in terms of time.
Time analysis can be as useful as price in analyzing and predicting future action.
One more: After today's close, IBM posts a decent outlook and the stock climbs $5 in after hours. Somewhere there is a bottom and some stocks have rallied on good news. The overall market hasn't shown signs of capitulation in terms of a huge volume day, or a runup in VIX. The decline remains orderly, and in a bear market that can mean a lot more downside.
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