Two views on oil from MarketWatch, the bearish article (link), the bullish article (link).
The bullish short term target is $140, only $6 away, so it isn't that bullish. The bear says that he is typically early. Of course, it is dicey trying to play oil at this point (or any stock or commodity that has seen a huge bull move).
One scenario I can see is a spike top on big news. That might tempt me to try and go short, though my history trading energy stocks is poor, so I tend to shy away from this sector. Usually the XLE makes a secondary top after spot crude has topped, but counting on that history to repeat isn't something I would like to tempt, considering the move up.
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