Thursday, July 17, 2008

The "beat" goes on, well, until GOOG

VixandMore (link) has this

>>
with 11% of the S&P 500 companies reporting, Bespoke has calculated the current quarter's EPS beat rate to be 72%. There are a lot of earnings reports still to come, but if it holds, the 72% beat rate will be the second highest in the past decade.
>>

Then GOOG drops a bombshell and is down 11% after hours. The other caveat is that a good many companies are beating estimates for this quarter and then guiding lower for the rest of the year. One explanation might be that the stimulus checks are about done, and a lot of them got spent for the quarter just ended.

I believe that earnings are the primary mover of stocks over the long term. It will interesting to see how the overall stock market responds to the GOOG news. A modest dip would be the normal reaction. Calendar trends point to 7/24 as a decent buy in for stocks, and about a one week holding period. Again, seasonal factors are one of the least reliable indicators. Still, I like to bet with as many indicators in my favor as possible.

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