Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Post election decline?

A lot of folks are thinking that there will be a relief rally once the uncertainty of the U. S. election is resolved. However, at Barrons Online (link) there is this bit:

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presidential elections in bear markets, while rare, invariably foreshadow further declines once the shouting is over and the ballots are counted.

Since 1928, Mr. Harris reports, there have been four times when a bear market's reign encompassed Election Day and year's end: 1932, 1948, 1956, 2000. (The 1940 bear market started after the election.) The average decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 was 5.89%, but during that relatively brief span, the index at its low was off, on average, by more than 10%.

So no matter who wins, if history's any guide, for investors the rest of the year stacks up as something less than exhilarating. (We know, what else is new?)

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