Friday, January 09, 2009

Poor tape action and some thoughts

Stock market fades as the day went on. Bonds open lower, then rally, then fade. I mull going long on APOL and also TLT but don't pull the trigger. After a couple of months away from trading, I feel extra cautious. SPY looks a lot more interesting as a long at 85 than it does here.

Some might ask why I would buy bonds (TLT) if I think it is a bubble? Bubbles have a way of going much further than anyone expects. This one is only about eight weeks old and TLT is a classic breakout chart that may run for that many months before the run ends.

I would be hesitant to buy any so-called "Obama" stocks such as infrastructure plays. These things have a way of taking a long time to develop, and longer time to reach the earnings line. There is likely plenty of time to get in, after the earnings are reported.

Also in the news, my broker, ThinkorSwim is being bought out by TD Ameritrade. I may eventually be looking for another broker.

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