Thursday, August 06, 2009

Kahn: correction is near

Michael Kahn writing for Barrons, points out two sentiment indicators that may mean the much anticipated correction is near (link).

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Last week, the American Association of Individual Investors survey reported that 48% of their members polled were bullish while only 31% were bearish. Historically, the average bullish and bearish readings are 39% and 30%, respectively, so this does present a somewhat unusual optimism on stocks.
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Add to that a major stock analyst calling for another 10% up, and that is another piece of the puzzle in place. With all that, the rally isn't going to go without a fight. There is enough steam built up to mitigate any immediate sharp downturn. Resistance often becomes support, so I expect SPY 95 to offer support on the way down.

Long INTC, IWM, XLE, MTB, CELG, AMGN

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