Thursday, May 06, 2010

SPY support fails

Minor support for SPY at the 50 day moving average and the minor high at 115 are now broken. SPY 105 looms large on the intermediate chart. VIX now at 27, I said 29 might be a signal level, though that isn't any kind of exact science.

I am most concerned about my short Jun SPY 100 puts. I am holding, and thinking if I get exercised at that level, it is buying on a 20% pullback off the recovery highs from SPY 121. It is one way to rationalize what is now over a 200% notional value loss.

Long GLD, SPY, TLT

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