Roger Nusbaum writes about the 200 day simple moving average and the possibility of a new bear market (link).
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As far as a "new" bear market, I believe the 200 DMA will tell us the answer, what is more important than guessing correctly is (also repeated for emphasis) having some sort of objective strategy for defensive action ...
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If market timing were so fool-proof as one indicator, we'd all be rich. (Or more likely the indicator would stop working.) Nusbaum is an advocate of gradual moves, as am I. When average folks make rash, all-in or all-out decisions, they tend to be bad decisions, often near the worst possible time.
As for trading the news, I am reluctant to take on much more risk, even if I may anticipate certain markets to react a certain way. I am a bit stunned that TLT had a monster up day given the news background.
I tend to believe that U. S. Treasury bonds are near an all time bubble top. The Fed manipulation, investor sentiment, the all time low low short term yields are all elements. However, as always trying to time a top tends to be a low percentage play, and markets can remain irrational far longer than a bear can remain solvent.
As for gold, even with record highs, I am not seeing the sentiment signs of a bubble. Skeptics remain skeptical. Small timers occasionally buy here and there, but are not lining up to buy with their credit cards. Folks rarely mention gold in casual conversation, and if mentioned, their eyes still tend to glaze over, instead of their ears perking up. Now, we may not get a bubble top. Bull markets don't always end with a moon shot.
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