Sunday, December 01, 2013

Fearful rookie getting back in

I've been away. I did one small trade, selling BRKB puts.

There is a recent post on the Boglehead (Vanguard) forum about missing out on the bull move (link).
I did not participate in the market rally of the past 4 years due to fear...

Like I sometimes write, on the Internet almost everyone that reports is a winner. The losers tend to slink away in silence. For the most part, market timing is a losing game. Most individual investors do poorly. The post linked is not a good sign for the stock market bulls, but by itself doesn't mean much.

Still, I have found that anecdotes are useful. When silver was topping, there were many posts from novices thinking it was a sure thing, a sure win, when silver is among the most volatile of vehicles.

There was an appearance at a stock market group of a recent finance degree graduate who wanted to tell all of the market veterans there that gold was the only sound investment. That hyperinflation was the only possible outcome. When novices and rookies some how have that in their heads, the odds of that happening are near zero. Yes, there may be a rookie out there that lucks into a correct call. Some even have a string of correct calls and make decent money trading.

Readers know that I like to have the odds in my favor, so the 1-in-1000 chance that a rookie or novice gets it right is not my kind of play. Better to take the 99.9% odds.

I came into this year (calendar 2013) with a bearish outlook. One thing that turned me around was anecdotes from several people that were extremely afraid of the stock market.

Updates may or may not be forthcoming. By January 2014, I should be back to a more regular schedule. In the interim, I can not say.

Thank you to all the readers, especially the few that may have been with me for the years I have been blogging.

No comments: