37-3 for April, grade B-

Thirty seven winners, three losers for the April option cycle. As always before new readers get too excited by the high win percentage, those are the approximate odds going into the trades. I mostly sell options for small premiums, with the risk of a big loss if there is a big move against me. People buying options with only a 10% chance of profit are hoping for a 10-to-1 payout.
 
I was a bit too cautious overall, though the two sharp down days, make it easier it justify. The surprise is that bonds are the best performing asset class, even as the Fed continues to taper.

The talk this week was about hedge fund trader David Tepper, Appaloosa Management (link), makes cautious comments on the stock market that many observers believe caused the big sell off. 

Old timers may remember other such situations when a big name person caused similarly sharp sell offs. If it is just talk, the market usually comes back. If there is underlying news, that is a different case. For now the Tepper comments look like just talk. His comment "don't be so freaking long," certainly apply to the over aggressive bulls. I recently wrote about the story of The Fly, a popular momentum stock blogger, who experienced a crash and burn due to his over exposure (link2).

Going forward, I remain cautiously bullish. None of the four signs of an imminent stock market top are present (link3).

Position Summary:

long BEAV CNX DAL HON KORS SLB VRX

net long AAPL AMGN APC ASH DIS GLD IWM SPY