Saturday, August 16, 2014

30-5-2 for August, grade C

Let me start by repeating my public service annoucement on depression and the links in the previous post. It is that important. Free support groups for depression and anxiey

If a friend or family member is chronically depressed NAMI may be a good group to contact

Now back to the regular programming. The August option cycle was so-so. My self-grade is C. Profits were modest, and could have been a lot better. The count for closed trades is 30 winners, 5 losers, 2 break even. As always, new readers, should not get excited by the high win percentage. Those are the approximate odds going in. The catch is that the profits tend to be tiny, and the losses can be substantial.

Losers include EWG, T, TWX, and WFC. The last three would have been winners if I had held on. Winners include seven layers of puts and calls sold on IWM. AMGN and VRX continue to be my most profitable trading stocks for 2014, even though there was a down move in VRX.

Bonds continue to rally. Gold was flat. The waterfall decline that started in high yield bonds, saw a V-shaped recovery rally. In the news is an etf GURU, which uses the 13F reports to try and follow the smart big money. Looking at the top holdings for that etf can give a person some ideas. The caveat is that smart money doesn't necessarily stay smart, and big money can mean big mistakes.

Seasonal factors point to an upside acceleration in the stock market, starting September 30. Some of the calls I sold during the big dip are deep into the red. Sentiment at the Association of Individual Investors remains right near at its historic average at 39.8% bulls (link).

Going forward, I want to be prepared for an upside acceleration, while still being flexible enough if something else happens.

No comments: