Saturday, January 17, 2015

38-2-1 for January, grade A-

Thirty eight winners, two losers, one break even for the January cycle, grade A-. I experience modest gains and a high win percentage during this turbulent start to 2015. The two losers were BBY and SPY. Both had offsetting profits, so I didn't lose money on any ticker symbol for the month. A bit of skill, a bit of luck, and some stock picking are factors. Best winners include FDX (Federal Express) and IWM (Russell 2000 etf). 
My SPY backratio insurance did not come into play despite the down start to the year. I have more put ratios for February and March. Basically, these help with a 10% decline into an expiration Friday.

I initiated new longs in GDX the gold mining etf and so far that has worked well. These are tiny positions. Biotech was mostly a big winner for me in 2014, but this year the road looks to be more difficult. I don't have any position in bonds, even though it looks near parabolic to the upside. Oil continues to attract a lot of attention, so I think there is more time needed to form a bottom. It may be years before the price of oil recovers in a meaningful and lasting way.

A few months ago, I blogged about my trading difficulties when Mercury went retrograde. That three-time a year configuration for Mercury starts again on January 18th. I am a fan of anything that works, so I will watch myself. I won't be fearful, I will be observant. 

Many eyes will be on the European Central Bank (ECB), as to what it might do next. It is widely anticipated that a massive quantitative easing program will be announced next week. What is announced and what is expected may not be in alignment and the markets may react. Earnings reports continue, and there are often trading opportunities around those earnings events.

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