Saturday, March 28, 2015

Weekly: tide goes out


Money flows out of my account this week. There was a headline on Marketwatch about money flowing out of U.S. stocks. Headlines like that tend to be supportive for bulls. As for my week, I didn't do much, and what I little I did do turned out badly. I got whipsawed out of some positions in DIS and HD. That said, it wasn't as if I was aggressively positioned one way or another. The losses make me ever more cautious.
Trades (p=put, c=call, 3rd week of expiration unless specified):

Thu Cover (buy to close) HD Apr 112 p @112.4. Ouch! Home Depot knifes lower at the open and I cover this leg of puts for a 350% loss in three days. Like I said ouch. I don't think it is time to be cute or patient or brave. It is time to be mechanical and unemotional. HD broke the strike price 112 then bounced. The strike price is my mental stop. I got a mediocre fill in a fast and wide market. A few minutes later, HD bounces hard, so I was whipsawed out for the big loss. It happens. It is a hazard of using stops. The hazard of not using stops is risking huge losses if the move continues.

Wed Cover (buy to close) DIS Apr 105 p @105.4. When in doubt get out. In this case for about a 65% loss basis the premium collected. Disney had a nice run up, but now that it is moving down, I'm not seeing chart support until 103. I got into this layer of puts as a rebalancing move. I am getting out early because I have more layers of sold puts at lower strike prices.

Sell HON Apr 105 p @102.0. Rebalance a complicated position in Honeywell. I feel like Charlie Brown from the Peanuts, and Lucy Van Pelt pulled away the football again. HON made a high at expiration back in February and another one now at March expiration. I thought, I was getting head faked, but it was the real deal.

Sell UNH Apr 124 c @116.6. Rebalance short strangles in United Healthcare.

Mon Sell HD Apr 112 p @117.6. Rebalance short strangles on Home Depot.

Position Summary:
long AMBA APC ASH JWN LOCO VRX
net long BRKB DIS FDX HD HON IWM XOM
net neutral BA COST MNST PANW SPY UNH WHR

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