Saturday, September 05, 2015

Weekly: Whipsawed

Market action was all over the place. I feel out of synch with the markets, and was down just a bit of rht week. SPY was down about 3%. I got whipsawed out of some SPY option positions on Tuesday, with the big rally on Wednesday it felt painful. Then Thursday saw a big rally fade, and Friday another gap down.

A few neighborhood observations: I saw that Bloomberg magazine had a cover full of bear faces. At the local coffee shop I mentioned my stop loss frustration this week. A stranger interjected "why would you do that?" She went on to tell me that this time she wasn't going to sell. A third anecdote is a 30-something on the Boglehead forum decided to bail out. The bears on the cover is bullish. The lady in the coffeeshop saying she wasn't going to sell "this time," bearish. The young index investor bailing due to panic, bullish.

The local Canslim meetup on Thursday was well attended with about 40 people. There was a look back at the 2010 flash crash. In 2010 there were four distinct waves down, lower lows and four months before the low. As of this writing, for 2015, the market is working on wave two down. The lows have not been broken. The clock started Aug 19, 2015, so not even one full month yet. Corrections usually take some time.

Here are the trades. Not a lot of highlights, half jokingly it felt like it was mostly me buying highs selling lows and making it up on volume. Sheesh. That said, I was only down a bit for the week so it could have been a lot worse. (p = puts, c = calls, sell means sell-to-open, all are third week expiration unless noted)

Fri Another day, another gap down at the open.
Sell SPY SepW2 200 c @192.8 Rebalance in the S&P 500 etf.

Sell NFLX shares half position @99.36 Last of my NFLX shares. This batch goes out at a 25% loss. I am still net long via options.

Sell SPY Sep 202.5 c @192.7 30 Rebalance in the S&P 500 etf (again).

Buy SPY Nov put vertical: @192.3
Buy SPY Nov 185 p / Sell SPY Nov 175 p A bit of insurance against a decline to new lows.

Thu Sell-to-close SPY Oct 199 p @196.3 Close this leg for about a 175% profit. This long put position served it purpose. Selling it rebalances me closer to delta neutral, though I am still slightly net short SPY.

Sell SPY Sep 195 p @197.0 Another rebalancing move as the S&P 500 continues to rally.

Sell TSLA Sep 200 p @252.0 Rebalance in Tesla Motors. I am going way out of the money.

Sell NFLX Sep 120 c @100.3 Rebalance in Netflix as it declines. Closest sold options are the 95 puts.

Sell SPY Sep 205 c @196.4 Rebalance in the S&P 500 etf.

Buy SPY Dec put vertical spread @195.9:
Buy SPY Dec 190 p / Sell Dec 182 p I nudge back to slight bearish on SPY as the rally fails. In isolation this vertical put spread might be considered a bet on a retest of the flash-crash lows around SPY 182 before December.

Wed Sell SPY SepW2 182 p @193.8 Rebalance in the S&P 500 etf.

Sell NFLX Sep 120 c @102.7 Rebalance in Netflix

Sell SPY SepW2 183 p @194.0 Rebalance in the S&P 500 etf (second for today).

Tue Market gaps down over 4 SPY points. I sold layers of SPY 192 puts so it is a scary move.

Sell SPY SepW1 200 c @193.8 Rebalance in the S&P 500 etf.

Sell BRKB Sep 140 c @131.3 Hedge sold puts by selling calls.

Sell SPY SepW2 203 c @193.3 Second rebalance in the S&P 500 etf.

Sell HON Sep 100 c @96.8 Rebalance a complicated position in Honeywell.

Sell SPY Sep 203.5 @192.5 Third rebalance in the S&P 500 etf.

Sell NFLX SepW2 120 c @104.6 Rebalance in Netflix.

Tue Last half hour cover for losses and rebalance:
Cover (buy to close) SPY SepW1 192 p @191.9 About an 800% loss

Cover (buy to close) SPY SepW2 192 p @191.8 About a 140% loss

Sell IBB Sep 370 c @332.4 Rebalance in the biotech etf
Sell TSLA Sep 285 c @238.2 Rebalance in Tesla Motors

Tuesday ended up as another meat-grinder day, with signficant losses for my account.

Mon Sell SPY SepW1 204 c @197.4 Rebalance in the S&P 500 etf

Sell IBB Sep 375 c @345.2 Rebalance in the biotech etf.

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