Saturday, October 17, 2015

Back in the saddle 44 - 12 for October, grade B-

I count 44 winners, 12 losers for October. The good news is that my trading account has recovered all the losses and then some from the summer swoon. Yippee! The bad news is that my overall positioning was a bit too cautious. I thought the market would be lower. I covered some sold calls for losses in DIS Disney, NKE Nike, SKX Sketchers and others.

Back to the good side, I played IBB the biotech etf rather well, with mostly winners, and a lot of them. IBB is not all that liquid, so I sold options a bit further out of the money than usual to lessen the chance to have to cover.

Going forward? I think the correction isn't over. New lows might still be out there. The parallel is to the 2010 flash crash correction, which took four months to bottom. If 2015 keeps similar time, late November 2015 would be the bottom.

If this is the start of a bear market, all bets are off. I am open to that possibility. However, am not willing to place heavy bets on the bear becoming dominant. It is just a possibility.

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