Saturday, June 25, 2016

Weekly: Brexit goes boom

Stock markets tumble on Friday as the UK votes to leave the EU, the Brexit. I got caught in the bull rally trap. It was a good week to be a cautious trader. My losses for the week ended about the same as SPY -1.4% or so. The other piece of crap was Telsa bidding to take over Solar City. I will live to trade another day. I did a lot of tap dancing, but it could have been many multiples worse.

I'm sure some aggressive traders were hit hard by the big moves this week, though a few may have had a huge up week. I plan to skip a week of blogging because of travel. Hopefully it will be a quiter week. I'll have two weeks of updates on July 9th. I am looking for more downside, because many novices want to buy this decline. I sold a lot of calls thinking that any upside will be limited.

Here are the crap trades for a crap week (c = calls, p = puts, all are third week expiration unless noted, sell means sell-to-open, cover means buy-to-close, number is price per contract):

Mon Big rally on Brexit poll movements to stay. After option expiration, I have a lot of dry powder and put some to work.
Sell SPY JunW4 201 p 26
Sell SPY JulW2 195 p 44

Sell CMG Jul 305 p 50
Sell ULTA Jul 220 p 80

Sell AVGO Jul 135 p 40

Sell TSLA strangle: Jul 180 p / 265 c 82
Sell TSLA Jul 180 p 51
Sell TSLA Jul 265 c 31

Sell BRKB Aug 125 p 54

Tue Sell SPY JunW4 199 p 25

Wed Telsa down hard on news that it wants to acquire Solar City. I tap dance all day long. For the most part, the hole keeps getting bigger.

Sell TSLA Jul 240 c 61
Sell TSLA Jul 160 p 48

Sell MCD Jul 110 p 20 McDonalds lower on downgrade. I go long, but with a tiny position.

Sell TSLA JunW4 215 c 27
Sell TSLA JulW2 222.5 c 53

Cover TSLA JunW4 200 p 490 about a 500% loss
My gut tells me to stay with this one. In hindsight, I thankfully didn't listen to my gut and followed my rules as TSLA touched 189 before the week was over.

Sell TSLA JunW4 210 c 27
Sell TSLA Jul 225 c 111

Sell TSLA JunW4 207.5 c 36
Sell TSLA JunW4 185 p 36

Sell SCTY Jul 26 c 26

Sell FDX strangle 135/170 for 54: 
Sell FDX Jul 135 p 24
Sell FDX Jul 170 c 28

Sell ULTA Jul 255 c 54

Thu Sell TSLA JulW1 222.5 c 40
Sell TSLA JulW1 170 p 44
Sell TSLA JulW2 165 p 46

Sell SPY JunW4 203 p 34

Fri Brexit yes is to leave. Markets tumble. At the open, I am lucky enough to have modest losses.

Sell SPY JulW2 213.5 c 24
Sell SPY Jul 214 c 30
Sell GLD Aug 115/150 strangle 71: GLD Aug 115 p 41
Sell GLD Aug 150 c 30
Sell GLD Jul 117 p 18
Sell VGK Jul 48 c 29

Mid-day worried about a sell off into the close
Cover TSLA JunW4 185 p 04 for 90% gain
Cover SPY JunW4 203 p 27 for 12% gain

Online newbies lean towards buying this dip. I sell calls thinking any up side is limited and more downside may be coming.

Sell IWM Jul 119 c 17
Sell MCD Jul 125 c 22
Sell AVGO Jul 165 c 43

Sell GDX Aug 21/36 strangle 36: 
Sell GDX Aug 21 p 20
Sell GDX Aug 36 c 16

Sell TSLA Jul 210 c 148
Sell VRX Jul 27.5 c 17

Sell WFC Jul 50 c 13
Sell CMG Jul 465 c 52

Sell TSLA JulW1 170 p 38
We didn't get the hard sell off into the close that I feared. Market may tick up on Monday as some novice mutual fund buyers want to buy the dip. I lean towards more

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