Saturday, August 20, 2016

August: Pretty Good B+ 67-7

A pretty good, though I feel like I left some money on the table. I count 67 winners, 7 losers for the August option cycle, grade is B+. I didn't have any major blow ups, though I did take a few large percentage losses. 

Going forward I am looking for volatility to pick up. An acceleration to the upside might be the scenario that frustrates the most market participants.

Long time readers know I sometimes mention Mercury retrograde. This is coming August 30 and lasts about three weeks. Often times, markets go turbulent during that time. Combine that with September often being a month with wide swings, a lot of uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election, and a September or October surprise is something to look for.

Results from best to worst:
SLV 39.1% silver
GLD 26.1% gold
EEM 16.8% emerging markets equity
TLT 15.0% U.S. 20 year treasuries
IWM 9.2% U.S. small cap
SPY 7.2% U.S. large cap

My trading account still lags at +6.2 for the year. Real world results are a bit worse, because the table above doesn't include the dividends, while my account total does. Add another 1% or so to SPY and TLT for dividends. There is good news and bad news. Good news is that I am up. Bad news, is that I could have done a lot better. My retirement accounts are more conservatively invested and up less than the 6%. I tend to be a market chicken, though I take an occasion big swing for small amounts.

No comments: