Friday, October 21, 2016

Monthly: Some hits, some misses 63-9 for October, B-

I count 63 winners, 9 losers for the October option cycle. Grade is B-, with a small gain for the month. Gains are good. I took a few losses this cycle. TWLO Twilio almost became a big banana, but I cut the loss before it ballooned any further. DB Deutsche Bank was a winner, though a small one. I had quite a few small winners. BRKB Berkshire was a problem child. I lost on my speculative backration on FB Facebook.

So far my election 2016 plays have not turned out well. I was looking for an up move in bonds and gold, but instead they fell and I took some losses. Overall, I think I am about break even for the election trades. Not bad, considering just how wrong I have been on direction.
Towards the end of the trading month, I had some Internet connection problems. I also have less time for trading in the fall. So I'll have a lot of capital available. The election still could be a wild card.

Some people have been talking about the 29th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. Some mention a 29 year cycle. I feel like I have escaped the doom and gloom camp, but I often still go to cautious mode. I no longer am an all-in, all-out, all-short kind of trader. Considering how bad I can be on directional trades, that's probably a wise course.

/edit: I forgot to add the performance numbers. From best to worst a few etfs 2016 YTD performance (no dividends):

SLV +35.4% silver
GLD +19.1% gold

EEM +16.8% emerging market equities
TLT +10.6% U.S. Treasury bonds

IWM + 7.5% Russell 2000, U.S. small cap
SPY + 5.0% S&P 500 U.S. large cap

My trading account +8.1%. So I move slightly in front of IWM in the yearly horse race. I have another positive month. Considering how badly the year started for me (-5% first month), +8% is progress, it is good news. I'm sure some of the aggressive YOLO crowd will boo and hiss at being happy with +8%. However, I'm not here to please them, or any one else. Sure it would be great to be up 20% or 30%. If I knew better, I'd do better.
I mostly have traded equity options, but the grass has been greener in metals and bonds. Though gold and bonds edged lower this month.

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